UDA and ODM Lead as Kenya’s Most Popular Political Parties — TIFA Survey

Nairobi, Kenya — September 25, 2025

A new Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) survey reveals that 16 % of Kenyans now identify with UDA, making it the most popular party, while 13 % back ODM. Meanwhile, a substantial 31 % of respondents say they do not align with any party. 

Key Findings

• UDA retains a small lead with 16 % support, as opposed to ODM’s 13 %. 

• 31 % of respondents said they do not identify with any political party, making it the largest single bloc. 

• When combined, UDA, ODM, and Ford-Kenya control just around 30 % of declared party alignments, indicating a weak hold of traditional parties over public alignment. 

• 10 % of respondents said they were undecided about their party affiliation. 

What It Signals

• Erosion of party loyalty: The large share of non-aligned and undecided voters suggests growing public disillusionment with existing parties.

• Volatility ahead of 2027: With many voters uncommitted, political parties cannot assume strong bases. Coalitions, candidate appeal, and campaign messaging may matter more than ever.

• Opportunity for new entrants: The high non-aligned bloc presents an opening for emerging parties or independent candidates to gain traction.

• Pressure for internal reform: Established parties like UDA and ODM may need to revamp their organization, responsiveness, and branding to retain and grow support.