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A new Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) survey reveals that 16 % of Kenyans now identify with UDA, making it the most popular party, while 13 % back ODM. Meanwhile, a substantial 31 % of respondents say they do not align with any party.
Nairobi, Kenya — September 25, 2025
A new Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) survey reveals that 16 % of Kenyans now identify with UDA, making it the most popular party, while 13 % back ODM. Meanwhile, a substantial 31 % of respondents say they do not align with any party.
UDA retains a small lead with 16 % support, as opposed to ODM’s 13 %.
31 % of respondents said they do not identify with any political party, making it the largest single bloc.
When combined, UDA, ODM, and Ford-Kenya control just around 30 % of declared party alignments, indicating a weak hold of traditional parties over public alignment.
10 % of respondents said they were undecided about their party affiliation.
Erosion of party loyalty: The large share of non-aligned and undecided voters suggests growing public disillusionment with existing parties.
Volatility ahead of 2027: With many voters uncommitted, political parties cannot assume strong bases. Coalitions, candidate appeal, and campaign messaging may matter more than ever.
Opportunity for new entrants: The high non-aligned bloc presents an opening for emerging parties or independent candidates to gain traction.
Pressure for internal reform: Established parties like UDA and ODM may need to revamp their organization, responsiveness, and branding to retain and grow support.
