The map of the Middle East is being redrawn, not by diplomats in air-conditioned suites, but by the boots of 10,000 soldiers marching across the dust of South Yemen. In a decisive maneuver that has caught regional powers off guard, the United Arab Emirates-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) has effectively seized control of the country’s entire southern tier.

This seismic shift fractures the fragile anti-Houthi coalition and brings the prospect of a divided Yemen closer than at any point since the unification of 1990. For Kenya, a nation whose energy prices and maritime security are tethered to the stability of the Gulf and the Red Sea, the routing of Saudi-backed forces signals a volatile new chapter in a war that refuses to end.

A Coalition Fractured

The STC’s advance into the oil-rich Hadramaut governorate and the strategic border region of Al-Mahra (bordering Oman) marks a total consolidation of power. Military sources confirm that STC troops now control all eight governorates that historically comprised South Yemen. This expansion has forced a humiliating retreat for Saudi Arabia, previously the dominant external player in the conflict.

In a move that underscores the severity of the rift, Riyadh has withdrawn its troops from the presidential palace in Aden and the city’s airport. This evacuation suggests that the Presidential Leadership Council—the UN-recognized government backed by the Saudis—has been effectively sidelined in its own temporary capital.

• Strategic Shift: The STC now controls the coastline from the Red Sea to the Omani border.
• Saudi Retreat: The withdrawal from Aden leaves the UAE as the primary power broker in the south.
• Omani Tension: Muscat initially closed its border in protest of the STC flag but was forced to relent as the reality on the ground shifted.

The Independence Gamble

While the STC has achieved military dominance, converting battlefield victories into a recognized state is a diplomatic minefield. Analysts warn that an immediate declaration of independence could isolate the south, drawing parallels to the frozen conflict in Western Sahara. Instead of a rash proclamation, the STC is expected to leverage its new position to demand a referendum on secession from the North.

This internal power struggle complicates the broader war against the Iran-backed Houthis, who control the capital, Sana’a. Since 2015, the anti-Houthi alliance was an uneasy marriage between the Saudi-backed Islah party and the UAE-backed separatists. That marriage now appears to be over.

The Kenyan Lens: Why It Matters

The consolidation of power by a UAE proxy changes the calculus for East Africa. The stability of Yemen is directly linked to the security of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a critical choke point for global shipping destined for Mombasa. Furthermore, any disruption in the oil-rich Hadramaut region could send jitters through global energy markets, potentially impacting fuel prices at the pump in Nairobi.

"Ultimately, the future of South Yemen will not be decided in Aden, but in Abu Dhabi," notes a regional security analyst. As the UAE tightens its grip on Yemen’s ports and resources, the dream of a unified Yemen fades, replaced by a fragmented reality that the world—and Kenya—must now navigate.