Uganda on Edge as U.S. Issues Stark Security Warning Ahead of Presidential Results

The diplomatic cables are crackling with alarm. The United States Embassy in Kampala has issued a high-level security alert, warning of potential “volatility” as Uganda awaits the final results of its disputed January 15 presidential election. The advisory, stripped of diplomatic niceties, depicts a capital bracing for unrest—its streets increasingly securitized, its political temperature rising.

In unusually blunt language, the Embassy urged American citizens to avoid large gatherings and maintain a low profile. “Security forces have been using teargas and firing shots into the air,” the alert stated, corroborating accounts from local activists who describe a heavy-handed crackdown on opposition supporters. The vote-counting phase—long regarded as the most perilous moment in Uganda’s electoral cycle—has effectively transformed Kampala into a fortress.

The Anatomy of Fear

The alert identifies three converging risks shaping the current moment:

• Indiscriminate Force: Reports of live ammunition being used to disperse crowds point to a doctrine of deterrence through overwhelming force—raising the risk of civilian casualties.

• Information Blackout: Growing fears of internet throttling and media censorship threaten to obscure events on the ground, particularly in opposition strongholds, and fuel rumor-driven panic.

• Flashpoint Dynamics: With official results pending amid allegations of rigging, even a minor trigger—a protest, an arrest, a viral claim—could ignite wider unrest.

A Region Watching

For Nairobi, the unease in Kampala reverberates beyond borders. Uganda is a critical trade partner and transit hub; instability there would ripple across East Africa’s economy. As military trucks patrol Kampala Road, the signal is unmistakable: the state is prepared to secure power at any cost.

The U.S. advisory now serves as a barometer of international anxiety. Eyes are fixed on President Yoweri Museveni’s next move, while the conspicuous silence from African Union leaders grows harder to ignore. In a region where precedent matters, how Uganda navigates this moment will be closely watched—and quietly judged.