GLOBAL – In a landmark decision reached on Wednesday, 19 November 2025, Turkey has been confirmed as the host for the 31st UN Climate Change Conference (COP31), while Australia will take the unprecedented role of leading the crucial negotiations. The fortnight-long summit is scheduled for November 2026 in the Mediterranean resort city of Antalya. [4, 5] This unique arrangement was brokered at the ongoing COP30 conference in Belém, Brazil, to resolve a protracted diplomatic standoff between the two nations. [4, 13]

The compromise was negotiated by Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, and his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. [4, 5] It averts a potential crisis where the summit would have defaulted to the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, Germany—an outcome widely seen as undesirable for maintaining diplomatic momentum. [8, 22, 23]

An Unprecedented Leadership Model

Under the terms of the deal, Turkey will manage the event's logistics and hold the formal title of COP President. [5, 20] However, in a significant departure from UN tradition, Australia will be appointed “president for negotiations.” [4] This gives Minister Bowen the authority to manage the negotiation process, appoint facilitators, prepare draft texts, and issue the final cover decision that summarises the summit's outcomes. [17, 20, 22] Observers have noted the arrangement is highly unusual, effectively splitting the traditional duties of the host nation. [8, 9]

The agreement also includes a provision for a pre-COP meeting to be held in a Pacific island nation. [4, 17] This event will serve as a pledging conference for the Pacific Resilience Fund, a key element of Australia's original bid, which was framed as a “Pacific COP” to amplify the voices of nations on the front line of climate change. [11, 18, 36]

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

For Kenya and the wider East Africa region, the structure of the COP31 presidency will be watched closely. The primary objective for Kenyan negotiators, as consistently articulated at successive COPs, is securing predictable and accessible climate finance to fund adaptation and mitigation efforts. [29, 34] Kenya's national climate action plan is heavily contingent on international support, with an estimated 80% of its emissions reduction target conditional on external financing. [29]

The dual leadership presents both opportunities and uncertainties. Australia’s role as negotiation president, born from its alliance with climate-vulnerable Pacific states, could ensure that the needs of developing nations remain central to the talks. This focus aligns with the long-standing position of the Africa Group of Negotiators (AGN), which calls for formal recognition of Africa's “special needs and special circumstances.” [37, 38]

Simultaneously, Turkey has positioned its candidacy as a “bridging role” between the Global North and South, pledging to host an inclusive conference that prioritises the voices of vulnerable regions, including Africa. [24, 39] The critical question for policymakers in Nairobi is whether this complex power-sharing arrangement will streamline or complicate the delivery of tangible financial commitments, particularly the new collective quantified goal on climate finance set to be agreed upon post-2025. [25]

Mixed Reactions to the Deal

The announcement has drawn varied responses. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described the outcome as an “outstanding result” and a “big win for both Australia and Turkey.” [6, 11] However, leaders from the Pacific, who were cornerstone partners in Australia's bid, expressed sharp disappointment. [9] Papua New Guinea's Foreign Minister, Justin Tkatchenko, stated he was “not at all happy with the result.” [4, 18]

The stalemate emerged because the host for COP31 must be unanimously chosen by the 28 members of the UN’s “Western European and Others Group” (WEOG), to which both nations belong. [7, 8] With neither side willing to concede, the compromise was forged to prevent the negotiations from collapsing. The final arrangement must still be formally ratified by the more than 190 countries participating in COP30 before the conference concludes. [9]