The machinery of Kenya’s ruling party, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), has formally merged with the traditional power brokers of Isiolo politics. On Tuesday, the party handed its nomination certificate to Tubi Mohamed Tubi, the 37-year-old son of the late Isiolo South MP Mohamed Tubi Bidu, effectively turning the upcoming by-election into a coronation of legacy rather than a contest of ideologies.

The handover at Hustler Plaza in Nairobi was more than a bureaucratic procedure; it was a statement of intent. By picking the younger Tubi—already anointed by the influential Borana Council of Elders—UDA is looking to flip a seat previously held by the Jubilee Party without firing a single political shot. The strategy is clear: ride the wave of local grief and the formidable “negotiated democracy” model to cement President William Ruto’s grip on the upper Eastern region.

The Politics of Inheritance

For the residents of Isiolo South, this script is familiar. In Kenyan politics, the death of a patriarch often births a political heir, a phenomenon driven by the desire for continuity and the unspoken rule that a family should be allowed to “finish the work.” Tubi Jnr, who was unanimously endorsed by elders just days after his father’s burial, accepted the UDA ticket from Secretary General Hassan Omar Hassan with the quiet confidence of a man whose path has been cleared by powerful forces.

“The Party Leader is grateful to the leadership and people of Isiolo for building consensus,” Hassan Omar noted, framing the nomination as a victory for unity. But beneath the diplomatic language lies a sharp political calculation. The late MP, who died on November 12, 2025, was a Jubilee man. By swiftly bringing his son into the yellow fold, UDA effectively neutralizes the opposition, making it difficult for Jubilee or other Azimio affiliates to field a candidate without appearing to fight the grieving family and the elders.

Negotiated Democracy: The Real Power Broker

While the certificate bears the UDA stamp, the real mandate comes from the dusty boardrooms of Isiolo’s clan elders. In this region, the ballot box often serves to ratify decisions already made under the acacia trees. The elders’ endorsement of Tubi Jnr was a signal to all other aspirants to step down. It is a system designed to prevent inter-clan animosity, but critics argue it often locks out competitive leadership.

• The Candidate: Tubi Mohamed Tubi, 37.
• The Stake: Completing the term of his father, Mohamed Tubi Bidu.
• The Date: By-election set for February 26, 2026.
• The Backers: Borana Council of Elders, Isiolo Senator Fatuma Dullo, and former MP Haji Charfano Guyo Mokku.

For the voter in Garba Tulla or Sericho, the stakes are visceral. This is not about party colors; it is about who can deliver water in a drought-stricken landscape and who has the ear of the government to curb the banditry that terrorizes the region. The UDA narrative is simple: electing a government-aligned MP ensures the “national cake” reaches the grassroots.

A Test for the Ruling Party

The February 26 by-election will be a litmus test for UDA’s penetration in Isiolo, a county that has historically oscillated between government and opposition. Senior party figures, including National Treasurer Japheth Nyakundi, have been camping in the region, urging locals to align with the government for the sake of development.

Yet, the transition is not without its risks. While the elders have spoken, the younger Tubi must now prove he is his own man, capable of navigating the treacherous waters of Parliament and delivering on the promises left unfulfilled by his father’s untimely death. As the campaign officially kicks off, the question remains: will the voters of Isiolo South rubber-stamp the elders' choice, or will the ballot box spring a surprise?

“It is official that Tubi is a member of UDA,” declared former Isiolo North MP Charfano Mokku. “Now, the work begins.”