A tense, high-stakes phone call between US President Donald Trump and Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has sent shockwaves across the globe, after Trump reportedly issued a blunt ultimatum: relinquish power and leave the country immediately. [3, 8]

For Kenyans watching from afar, the political drama in a nation thousands of kilometres away carries significant weight. The stability of Venezuela, a country sitting on the world's largest proven oil reserves, could directly influence the fuel prices announced monthly by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), impacting everything from matatu fares to the cost of ugali. [21, 10]

The unusual call, which took place around November 21, involved a stark offer, according to sources who spoke to the Miami Herald. [3] Trump allegedly told Maduro, "You can save yourself and those closest to you, but you must leave the country now," offering safe passage for the Venezuelan president, his wife, and his son if he agreed to resign on the spot. [3, 9]

Maduro, however, rejected the offer. [8] He responded with a set of counter-demands, including a "global amnesty" from prosecution for himself and his allies, and a proposal to cede political control while retaining command of Venezuela's powerful armed forces—terms the US promptly dismissed. [3, 9]

Why a Caracas Standoff Matters in Nairobi

Venezuela's political instability has profound implications for global energy markets. [16] Any significant disruption to its oil production, however diminished, could tighten the global supply of heavy crude oil, a key ingredient for producing diesel. [11] Such a shock could lead to a spike in global oil prices, a cost that is typically passed on to Kenyan consumers. [12] While a recent Streamline News analysis noted that global Brent crude was trading around $63 (approx. KES 8,190) a barrel, the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions. [4] A sudden escalation in the Venezuelan crisis could reverse that trend, adding pressure to household budgets across Kenya. [13]

A Campaign of 'Maximum Pressure'

The reported ultimatum is the latest move in a months-long pressure campaign by the Trump administration against Maduro's government. [3] This has included a significant US naval deployment off Venezuela's coast as part of what Washington has termed a counter-narcotics operation. [5] Trump himself confirmed the call took place but remained tight-lipped on the details, telling reporters, "I wouldn't say it went well or badly, it was a phone call." [3, 17] In a subsequent move that escalated tensions, Trump warned that Venezuelan airspace should be considered "closed in its entirety." [9] Maduro publicly pushed back against the pressure, telling supporters in Caracas that Venezuela did not want "a slave's peace," but "peace with sovereignty, equality, freedom!" [15]

While analysts are divided on whether the US would back its threats with military force, the diplomatic standoff introduces a new level of uncertainty. [11] For now, the world watches to see if Trump's high-stakes diplomacy will break the political stalemate in Venezuela. Back in Kenya, citizens will be watching the petrol station price boards, a clear reminder that in an interconnected world, a phone call between two leaders an ocean away can directly impact the cost of their daily lives. [14]