The diplomatic tightrope between Washington and New Delhi, carefully walked by three successive American presidents, appears to be snapping under the weight of President Donald Trump’s renewed "America First" doctrine. What began as campaign rhetoric has hardened into a bruising economic reality, disrupting a trajectory that once seemed destined for unchecked growth.

For policymakers in Nairobi, the unraveling of the US-India alliance is more than just distant geopolitical theater. It is a stark warning that in the current global climate, even the most robust strategic partnerships are vulnerable to transactional economics. As Washington imposes aggressive tariffs on New Delhi, the fallout threatens to reshape the trade corridors that connect Asia, the West, and Africa.

The Cost of 'America First'

For two decades, the relationship between the world's oldest and largest democracies followed a steady upward arc. From the civil nuclear deal under George W. Bush to the deepening defense ties of the Biden era, the understanding was mutual: the US respected India's autonomy, and India acted as a counterweight in the Indo-Pacific.

That consensus has fractured. Following the introduction of an additional 25% tariff on a wide range of Indian imports in August 2025, duties on some products have spiked to nearly 50%. Analysts note that this aggressive posture targets labor-intensive sectors—textiles, leather, and jewelry—that operate on razor-thin margins.

The scale of the disruption is massive. In 2024, the US was India’s largest export market, absorbing goods worth nearly $90 billion (approx. KES 11.6 trillion). Now, small and medium-sized Indian exporters face a quasi-embargo, potentially forcing them out of the American market entirely.

• Textiles & Footwear: High duties threaten to make Indian goods uncompetitive against rivals like Vietnam.
• Pharmaceuticals: Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on branded drugs unless production shifts to the US—a move that could destabilize the global supply chain for generic medicines, a lifeline for Kenya’s healthcare system.
• Tech & Defense: The tariffs undermine the trust required for high-level technology transfers.

A Geopolitical Gamble

While the White House cites trade imbalances and India’s purchase of discounted Russian oil as justification, officials in New Delhi view the measures as a betrayal. The sentiment in the Indian capital is that Washington is weaponizing trade against a partner that has increasingly aligned itself with Western interests regarding China.

The friction extends beyond tariffs. India remains under the shadow of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) due to its defense ties with Moscow. While previous administrations issued waivers for systems like the S-400 missile defense, current US officials have warned that deeper collaboration with Russia could now trigger punitive sanctions.

This pivot leaves India in a precarious position, potentially forcing it to diversify its markets aggressively—a move that could see an influx of Indian goods seeking new buyers in emerging markets like Kenya. As the debate in Washington heats up over whether the US is "losing" India, the message ringing from the Potomac to the Yamuna is clear: the era of unconditional partnership has been replaced by a cold, transactional peace.