In a significant reversal of his previous isolationist rhetoric, US President Donald Trump has executed a U-turn on his Somalia policy, pledging renewed military support to the Horn of Africa nation. Instead of the anticipated troop withdrawal, Washington is now set to donate high-grade military equipment to bolster Somalia’s war against Al-Shabaab.

The decision comes amid a "retooling" of the administration's strategy in East Africa. While President Trump has frequently criticized "forever wars" and expressed a desire to bring troops home, the reality of the terror threat in the region appears to have forced a pragmatic shift. The new package of aid is expected to include advanced surveillance drones, armored vehicles, and logistical support specifically earmarked for the Danab Brigade, the elite Somali special forces unit trained by the US.

Strategic Calculation

Analysts suggest this pivot is driven by the realization that a precipitous US exit could lead to the collapse of the fragile Somali government and a resurgence of Al-Shabaab, which poses a direct threat to US interests. Furthermore, keeping a foothold in Somalia is seen as essential to countering growing influence from other global powers in the Red Sea corridor. "Mining a mineral domestically does not safeguard national security if we depend on a foreign adversary to process it," Trump noted in a separate context, but the logic applies here: abandoning Somalia leaves a vacuum for adversaries to fill.

• Danab Support: The US will continue to fund and train the Danab, widely considered the most effective fighting force in Somalia.
• Anti-Piracy Warning: In a related development, Trump has also issued threats of direct military action against Somali pirates, signaling a tougher stance on maritime security.

Implications for Kenya

This policy shift is a relief for Kenya, which has borne the brunt of Al-Shabaab attacks and has troops stationed in Somalia under ATMIS. A stable Somalia, backed by US firepower, provides a critical buffer zone for Kenya’s northern border. The donation of high-grade equipment signals that despite the "America First" slogan, Washington acknowledges that the security of Mogadishu is inextricably linked to the security of the West.