An 'America First' Foreign Policy

A year after his inauguration on January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump's second term has been marked by a significant pivot in U.S. foreign policy, characterized by an 'America First' agenda that has reshaped global alliances and economic partnerships. This approach has had a profound impact on Kenya and the broader East African region, creating a climate of uncertainty and forcing a re-evaluation of long-standing relationships with the United States.

The administration's focus on domestic interests has led to a more transactional and unpredictable approach to foreign relations. This has been evident in the administration's stance on international agreements, with a withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and a comprehensive review of foreign aid spending. For many African nations, including Kenya, this has signaled a retreat from global cooperation on critical issues like climate change, public health, and economic development.

Impact on Aid and Health Programs

One of the most immediate and deeply felt impacts in Kenya has been the reduction in foreign aid. The Trump administration has implemented significant cuts to foreign assistance, with the health and education sectors being among the hardest hit. This includes a review and potential defunding of crucial health initiatives like the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has been instrumental in Kenya's fight against HIV/AIDS. Over the past two decades, the U.S. has invested over $8 billion in Kenya through PEPFAR, supporting nearly 1.3 million people with HIV/AIDS treatment. The potential withdrawal of this funding threatens to reverse years of progress and could lead to a public health crisis.

Reproductive health advocates in Kenya have also raised alarms over the reinstatement of the Mexico City Policy, also known as the 'Global Gag Rule'. This policy restricts U.S. aid to foreign organizations that provide or promote abortion services, a move that is expected to have far-reaching consequences for women's health and family planning services across the country.

Trade and Economic Uncertainty

The future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a cornerstone of U.S.-Africa trade relations, has been a major source of concern. The act, which provides duty-free access to the U.S. market for thousands of products from eligible African countries, is set to expire in 2025. The Trump administration's preference for bilateral trade agreements over multilateral ones has created uncertainty about whether AGOA will be renewed or replaced. This has significant implications for Kenya's textile and apparel industry, which is a major beneficiary of the program.

Furthermore, the administration's protectionist trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs on goods from various countries, could negatively affect Kenyan exports. While some analysts suggest that Kenya could potentially negotiate a favorable bilateral trade deal, the overall trend is one of increased trade barriers and economic unpredictability.

Stricter Immigration Policies

The Trump administration has also implemented stricter immigration policies that are affecting Kenyans seeking to study, work, or immigrate to the United States. These policies include proposals to end birthright citizenship, increase deportations of undocumented migrants, and place new restrictions on student and work visas. These measures could not only strain diplomatic relations but also reduce the flow of remittances from the Kenyan diaspora, which is a significant contributor to the country's economy.

The Geopolitical Landscape

The administration's focus on countering China's influence in Africa has added another layer of complexity to U.S.-Kenya relations. While this could create opportunities for Kenya to position itself as a key strategic partner, it also risks placing the country in the middle of a geopolitical tug-of-war between the two superpowers. Some analysts believe that a more transactional U.S. approach could push African nations to strengthen their ties with other global partners, including China and Russia, and foster greater regional cooperation and self-reliance.

As Kenya navigates this new and challenging landscape, the need for a flexible and adaptive foreign and economic policy has become more critical than ever. The developments of the past year have underscored the importance of diversifying partnerships and strengthening domestic institutions to weather the uncertainties of a rapidly changing global order.