The "Trump Trade" has struck again, but this time it is the sound of a retreat. Global markets, including ripples felt at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), rallied Thursday after US President Donald Trump walked back his tariff threats against Europe, a bluff called over his bizarre bid to buy Greenland.

Australian shares surged, and the relief was palpable across emerging markets. The "Taco" strategy—"Trump Always Chickens Out"—is becoming the hedge fund manager's playbook. By threatening economic war to secure a geopolitical trophy, Trump nearly upended global supply chains, only to blink at the last second.

The Kenyan Connection

Why should a trader in Westlands care about Greenland? Because in a globalized economy, volatility is a contagion. A US-Europe trade war would strengthen the dollar, pummeling the Kenyan Shilling (KES) which has only just stabilized.

• The Relief Rally: With the threat receding, risk appetite returns. Investors are more likely to look at "frontier markets" like Kenya when the giants aren't fighting.
• The Warning Sign: Analysts warn this is a temporary reprieve. "All arrows are pointing up, but the risk is building," noted market commentator Michael McCarthy.

For now, the NSE can exhale. But as long as global economic policy is dictated by the whims of the White House, Nairobi remains a passenger on a very bumpy ride.