A New Foreign Policy Doctrine?

A second Trump administration signalled a return to a highly transactional and unpredictable foreign policy on Thursday, 6th November 2025, announcing two major diplomatic and economic agreements of questionable immediate substance. The first announcement claimed that the Muslim-majority nation of Kazakhstan would sign the Abraham Accords to normalise relations with Israel. However, this was immediately caveated by the fact that Kazakhstan and Israel have had full and stable diplomatic relations since April 1992. The original Abraham Accords, signed on 15th September 2020, were seen as a landmark achievement, normalising relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and later Morocco and Sudan. The inclusion of Sudan in the initial accords held particular significance for the East Africa region, altering diplomatic dynamics in the Horn of Africa.

Later in the day, President Trump announced what he described as an "incredible Trade and Economic Deal between the United States and Uzbekistan." While details of the deal remain sparse, it aligns with a documented preference of the Trump administration for bilateral trade agreements over multilateral ones. This approach raises significant questions for Kenya, whose economy has benefited substantially from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a unilateral and non-reciprocal trade preference program established in 2000. AGOA, which allows duty-free access for thousands of Kenyan products to the US market, is set to expire in 2025. A US shift towards bilateral deals could complicate efforts to renew AGOA, potentially forcing Kenya and other African nations into complex individual negotiations that could alter longstanding trade relationships.

Domestic Turmoil and Legal Challenges

The administration's focus on international deal-making occurred against a backdrop of significant domestic strife. A federal judge in Rhode Island delivered a sharp rebuke, ordering the administration to pay the full monthly amount of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits within 24 hours. The judge stated the administration had "failed to consider the harms" of withholding the funds. SNAP is a critical US federal program that provides food-purchasing assistance to approximately 40 million low-income Americans. The court's ruling highlights ongoing legal and political battles over social safety nets in the US.

This legal defeat for the administration comes on day 37 of a record-breaking government shutdown, which began on 1st October 2025, after Congress failed to pass funding legislation. Such shutdowns disrupt federal services, furlough hundreds of thousands of government employees, and can negatively impact economic growth. The current shutdown is attributed to partisan disagreements over federal spending levels and healthcare subsidies. Amid the shutdown, President Trump has continued to urge Republican lawmakers to eliminate the Senate filibuster, a procedural tool that requires a supermajority to advance most legislation, in order to pass his agenda with a simple majority.

For Kenya, prolonged US political instability and government shutdowns can threaten the reliability and disbursement of foreign aid. The United States is a major development partner, providing hundreds of millions of dollars annually for critical health, agriculture, and security programs. Previous aid suspensions and threats of cuts under the "America First" policy have already caused concern among NGOs and government programs in Kenya that rely on US funding.

Shifting Political Landscape

Further indicating a period of political transition in Washington, the US Senate voted 51-49 against a bipartisan war powers resolution. The resolution sought to block the use of the US military against Venezuela without explicit congressional authorisation. The narrow defeat of the measure underscores deep divisions on foreign policy and the extent of presidential war-making authority.

In a move marking the end of an era for the Democratic Party, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced she will not seek re-election to Congress in 2026. Pelosi, the first and only woman to serve as Speaker of the House, has been a dominant figure in American politics for decades, first elected in 1987. Her departure signifies a generational shift in leadership within the Democratic party, which will have long-term implications for US policy and its engagement with global partners, including Kenya.