A sudden pledge from former US President Donald Trump to tackle the spiraling war in Sudan has sent ripples across the region, forcing a critical question for Kenyans: could this finally tame the chaos at our northern border, or will it add fuel to a raging fire?

For over two and a half years, the conflict has created the world's largest displacement and hunger crisis, pushing millions towards famine and sending waves of refugees into neighbouring countries, including Kenya. Trump's unexpected intervention, prompted by Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, promises a new approach where countless others have failed, directly impacting Kenya's security, economy, and its delicate role as a regional peacemaker.

A High-Stakes Diplomatic Shift

The intervention marks a significant pivot for Trump, who admitted the conflict was not on his "charts to be involved in." Following a White House meeting, he declared Sudan "the most violent place on Earth" and vowed to work with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Egypt to halt the violence. This is a high-stakes gamble, as these same regional powers have been accused of backing opposing sides in the war.

The conflict pits the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Analysts note that the UAE has been a principal backer of the RSF, while Egypt has supported the SAF. Saudi Arabia has attempted to position itself as a mediator. Trump's ability to leverage his personal relationships with these leaders will be the ultimate test of this new strategy.

The Kenyan Connection: More Than Just a Border

The war's devastation is not an abstract foreign policy issue for Kenya; it is a domestic reality. The conflict has had severe consequences, including:

• Economic Fallout: The war has disrupted vital trade routes. Earlier this year, Sudan banned key imports from Kenya, including tea, hitting farmers and businesses hard. The instability threatens billions of shillings in regional investments.
• Refugee Crisis: The violence has displaced nearly 12 million people, with over 3.9 million fleeing to neighbouring countries. This influx places immense strain on resources in counties like Turkana and adds to security concerns.
• Diplomatic Strain: Kenya's traditional role as a neutral peace broker has been tested. The Sudanese government has previously accused Nairobi of favouring the RSF, complicating diplomatic ties.

The humanitarian cost is staggering. The UN warns that the conflict has fueled the world's worst humanitarian crisis, with aid agencies struggling to reach the 25 million people in need. The total financial cost to the international community for a return to full-scale war was previously estimated to be over $100 billion (approx. KES 12.9 trillion) over a decade.

An Uncertain Path Forward

While Trump's focus brings renewed global attention, the path to peace is fraught with complexity. The RSF, a successor to the Janjaweed militia, has been accused of genocide and widespread human rights abuses, including systematic sexual violence. Numerous peace initiatives have failed to gain traction, unable to persuade the warring generals or their international backers to seek compromise.

Analysts remain divided on whether Trump's personal, top-down approach can succeed where structured diplomatic efforts have not. For Kenya and the rest of East Africa, the coming months will be crucial. The hope is for a stable neighbour and a secure border; the fear is that a miscalculation could entrench the conflict, with devastating consequences for the entire region.