Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced late Friday he was “immediately” terminating Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Somali nationals living in the state of Minnesota, a decision that could have ripple effects across the Horn of Africa. In a statement on his social media platform, Trump claimed without evidence that Minnesota was a “hub of fraudulent money laundering activity” and that “Somali gangs are terrorizing the people of that great State.”

While the direct number of individuals affected by this specific order may be small, the policy shift signals a significant challenge for regional stability, which is a core Kenyan foreign policy concern. According to a Congressional report from August 2025, only 705 Somalis nationwide are covered by the TPS program. However, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) noted in a July 2024 announcement that an extension and redesignation of TPS for Somalia could make an estimated 4,300 additional Somali nationals eligible.

Implications for Kenya and Regional Stability

The primary impact on East Africa centers on the potential disruption of diaspora remittances, a critical lifeline for Somalia's economy. Annually, the Somali diaspora remits approximately $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion, an amount that surpasses all international humanitarian and development aid combined and accounts for up to a quarter of the country's GDP. These funds are essential for basic needs, including food, education, and healthcare for an estimated 40% of Somali families. A sudden halt or reduction in this financial flow could exacerbate poverty and instability in Somalia, a nation already grappling with armed conflict, climate shocks, and food insecurity.

For Kenya, which has hosted hundreds of thousands of Somali refugees for over three decades and is a key contributor to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), any increase in instability in the neighboring state is a direct security threat. Nairobi has long pursued a policy of containment and eventual repatriation for Somali refugees, and a deterioration of conditions in Somalia could reverse fragile gains and increase pressure on Kenyan resources.

Understanding Temporary Protected Status

Temporary Protected Status is a designation granted by the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security to nationals of countries deemed unsafe for return due to conditions like armed conflict, natural disasters, or other extraordinary circumstances. Somalia was first designated for TPS in 1991 following the collapse of its government. The status has been consistently renewed by successive U.S. administrations due to persistent instability. The most recent extension by the current administration, announced in July 2024, is valid until March 17, 2026, citing ongoing armed conflict and humanitarian crises.

The conditions in Somalia remain dire. The U.S. State Department maintains a “Level 4: Do Not Travel” advisory for the country, its highest warning level, citing widespread crime, terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping, and piracy. This official assessment underscores the dangers facing individuals who might be deported.

Scrutinizing the Allegations

Trump’s allegations of widespread gang activity and money laundering targeting the Somali community in Minnesota have been a recurring theme in his political rhetoric. While law enforcement agencies, including the FBI, have investigated and prosecuted criminal activity involving some individuals of Somali descent in Minnesota over the years, including for gang-related crimes and terror recruitment, there is no widespread evidence to support the claim that the entire community is a hub for such activities. Rights groups have condemned the announcement, with the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) calling it a “political attack on the Somali and Muslim community driven by Islamophobic and hateful rhetoric.”

The decision arrives amid a broader push by Trump to implement hardline immigration policies, which have previously targeted protections for nationals from Haiti, Venezuela, and Syria, among others. The termination of TPS for this small but symbolic group of Somalis sends a chilling message to the wider diaspora community in the U.S. and creates significant uncertainty for the future of a fragile but vital economic link to the Horn of Africa.