In a move that shatters decades of transatlantic diplomatic norms, the Trump administration has formally declared that Europe stands on the brink of “civilisational erasure” due to mass migration and EU integration.

The assertion, detailed in a 33-page National Security Strategy signed by the President, marks a definitive pivot in Washington’s foreign policy. It explicitly commits the United States to supporting nationalist movements across the Atlantic—a stance that raises urgent questions for African nations navigating an increasingly polarized Global North.

The ‘Great Replacement’ Goes Official

Billed as a roadmap to secure American dominance, the document paints a bleak picture of the European continent. It argues that economic decline is merely a symptom of deeper structural failures, specifically targeting the European Union's governance.

The text appears to institutionalize the “great replacement” conspiracy theory, a narrative often cited by fringe groups but rarely seen in statecraft. The administration warns that several nations risk becoming “majority non-European,” stating:

• Europe faces the “real and stark prospect of civilisational erasure.”
• “Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognisable in 20 years or less.”
• The US must “cultivate resistance” to this trajectory within European nations.

For the Kenyan observer, this rhetoric is significant. Historically, when Western powers adopt hardline stances on “national identity” and “civilisational survival,” the ripple effects are felt in visa processing centers in Nairobi and trade negotiations across the continent.

Diplomatic Firestorm

The strategy explicitly calls for opening European markets to US goods—a standard economic demand—but couples it with a political mandate to dismantle the current EU consensus. The document claims that Brussels’ activities undermine “political liberty and sovereignty” while suppressing opposition.

European leaders have moved quickly to reject what they view as hostile interference. Johann Wadephul, Germany’s foreign minister, acknowledged the US remains a vital security partner but drew a firm red line regarding internal governance.

“We see ourselves as being able to discuss and debate these matters entirely on our own in the future, and do not need outside advice,” Wadephul countered on Friday, emphasizing that questions of freedom and social organization are not up for debate with Washington.

Implications for the Global South

While the document focuses on Europe, the language of “cultivating resistance” suggests a foreign policy that favors disruption over stability. Analysts note that a US administration focused on “civilisational” preservation is likely to view migration from Africa and the Middle East through a strictly security-based lens.

If Washington succeeds in emboldening Europe’s far-right factions, the path for Kenyans seeking education, work, or trade opportunities in the EU could narrow significantly. As the administration pushes for Europe to “take primary responsibility for its own defence,” the global diplomatic architecture is shifting, forcing nations like Kenya to reassess their own strategic alliances.