A sigh of relief has swept through African capitals as US President Donald Trump signs a law extending the AGOA trade pact until December 2026.

The uncertainty that has clouded trade relations between the United States and Sub-Saharan Africa for months has finally lifted. President Trump has affixed his signature to legislation that renews the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for another year. Crucially, the extension is retroactive from September 30, 2025, ensuring that duty-free access to the lucrative American market is restored without a gap. This move averts a potential economic crisis for thousands of exporters who rely on the pact.

"Demand More" Policy

While the extension is a victory for African diplomacy, it comes with a caveat. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, in announcing the decision, signalled a shift in American trade policy. The administration has made it clear that AGOA must now "demand more" from its partners. This phrasing suggests that future eligibility reviews will be more stringent, possibly linking trade benefits to alignment with US foreign policy interests or stricter labour and human rights standards.

"AGOA for the 21st century must yield more market access for U.S. businesses, farmers, and ranchers," Greer stated, indicating that the one-way preference system may soon evolve into reciprocal trade agreements. This aligns with Trump's "America First" doctrine, which seeks to reduce US trade deficits globally.

• Impact on Kenya: For Kenya, this extension is a critical lifeline. The country is a leading beneficiary of AGOA, particularly in the apparel sector. The renewal safeguards thousands of jobs in the Export Processing Zones (EPZs) in Athi River and Mombasa.
• The Clock is Ticking: The one-year extension is a short reprieve. African nations now have less than 12 months to negotiate a more permanent arrangement or prepare for the definitive end of the programme.

The Road Ahead

The reinstatement of AGOA allows shipments that were stalled at US ports to be cleared duty-free, releasing millions of dollars in capital tied up in logistics. However, the message from Washington is unambiguous: the era of unconditional access is drawing to a close. African trade ministers must now pivot from celebration to strategy, as the negotiations for the post-2026 era begin in earnest.

President Trump’s signature has bought time, but it has also set the stage for a high-stakes renegotiation of the Africa-US economic relationship.