A closely watched special election in the United States has seen a Donald Trump-endorsed Republican, Matt Van Epps, secure a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, reinforcing the former president's formidable grip on his party.

For Kenya, the outcome in Tennessee's 7th congressional district is more than foreign news; it's a potential indicator of the future of American foreign policy. The result energizes the 'America First' political base, a movement that has previously questioned the value of international trade pacts and foreign aid, putting foundational agreements like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) under a microscope.

A Test of Trump's Enduring Influence

Matt Van Epps, a military veteran, defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn with approximately 52% to 46% of the vote, according to the Associated Press. The race was seen nationally as a barometer for Republican enthusiasm ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Van Epps openly credited his victory to Trump's support, declaring, "Running with Trump is how you win." The former president campaigned for Van Epps, and a Trump-aligned political action committee, MAGA Inc., spent over $1 million (approx. KES 130 million) on the race.

While the district is reliably Republican, the single-digit margin of victory was narrower than expected. Donald Trump carried the same district by 22 percentage points in 2024, suggesting a potential shift in voter sentiment that both parties will be analysing keenly.

What a Resurgent 'America First' Means for Nairobi

The core of the issue for Kenyan businesses and policymakers is the future of AGOA, the cornerstone of US-Africa trade which provides duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products. Kenya is a major beneficiary, particularly in the apparel and textile sectors, which form the bulk of its exports under the agreement. The trade pact is set to expire in 2025, and its renewal is not guaranteed.

Analysts note that a Republican party heavily influenced by Trump's 'America First' ideology may favour protectionist policies and bilateral deals over multilateral agreements like AGOA. This creates significant uncertainty for the Kenyan economy.

• Trade Uncertainty: The potential renegotiation or dismantling of AGOA could impact billions of shillings in trade and threaten jobs in Kenya's export sector.
• Foreign Aid: The US is a primary source of foreign aid to Kenya, funding crucial sectors like health and security. A more isolationist US policy could see these funds reduced as domestic priorities take precedence.
• Strategic Partnership: Kenya's role as a key US ally in East Africa, particularly in counter-terrorism, could also be re-evaluated under a transactional foreign policy lens.

While some Kenyan officials remain optimistic that US-Kenya policy does not dramatically shift between administrations, the unpredictable nature of a Trump-influenced Republican party has introduced a new level of risk. As the US political landscape continues to evolve, Kenya finds itself at a crossroads, needing to navigate a potentially volatile relationship with one of its most critical partners.