The numbers are in, and they tell a damning story of exclusion. Of the 12,000 aspirants who flocked to State House seeking the UDA ticket for 2027, the overwhelming majority hail from the Rift Valley. Beneath the veneer of a national party, the ruling outfit remains stubbornly regional.

President Ruto’s strategy of building a "broad-based" behemoth is colliding with the reality of his base. The data reveals a party that is top-heavy with home support but dangerously thin in other key regions. This imbalance is not just a statistic; it is a political time bomb that threatens to alienate the very allies Ruto needs to secure a second term.

The Illusion of Inclusivity

The queue at State House was long, but the accents were familiar. The dominance of Rift Valley applicants signals that the grassroots machinery of UDA has failed to penetrate the Mountain or the Coast effectively. The "Hustler" narrative, once a unifying cry, is retreating into its ethnic shell.

• The Zoning Nightmare: This skew explains the panic over zoning. UDA cannot afford to zone regions where they have no candidates. They need partners like ODM to fill the gaps, but their own base is demanding total dominance.
• The Silent Rebellion: For aspirants from other regions, seeing the party machinery clogged with Rift Valley loyalists is a red flag. It suggests that when the tickets are dished out, the "shareholders" will eat first, and everyone else will scramble for crumbs.

A House Divided

As we march towards 2027, the President faces a dilemma. Does he dilute his base to accommodate outsiders, or does he double down on the Rift and risk isolating the rest of Kenya? The 12,000 names on his desk are not just applicants; they are a census of his political vulnerability.

Numbers don’t lie, but they can deceive. The UDA may look massive, but if its weight is all on one leg, it will surely topple.