A modest, beachside office nestled next to a pizza shop in the Cook Islands has become an unlikely hub for a global 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers busting international sanctions. An analysis of sanctions data has revealed that dozens of vessels suspected of smuggling crude oil for Russia and Iran are registered in the tiny Pacific microstate, raising alarms in Western capitals.

This intricate web of maritime evasion has direct consequences for Kenyans. Any disruption to the global oil supply or violation of sanctions can create price volatility, ultimately affecting the cost of fuel at the pump and the price of essential goods. The 'shadow fleet' is a sprawling network of ships using deceptive tactics to transport sanctioned goods like oil, often operating with substandard insurance and maintenance.

How the Operation Unfolds

Foreign ship owners can register their vessels under the Cook Islands' flag without ever visiting the palm-fringed nation, a practice known as a 'flag of convenience'. This allows them to operate with less stringent oversight. According to the data, this has made the registry a popular choice for those looking to circumvent sanctions imposed on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine and on Tehran over its nuclear program.

The scale of the operation is significant:

• 20 tankers registered in the Cook Islands are suspected by the United States of smuggling Russian and Iranian fuel between 2024 and 2025.
• 14 additional tankers flying the Cook Islands flag are blacklisted on a separate United Kingdom sanctions database for the same period.

Maritime Cook Islands (MCI), the private company that runs the registry, has stated that any vessels found to be in breach of sanctions are promptly de-flagged and that it is committed to complying with international maritime standards. However, the sheer volume of flagged vessels linked to illicit trade has drawn sharp criticism.

Diplomatic Tensions Rise

The revelations have strained relations between the Cook Islands and its closest diplomatic partner, New Zealand. Cook Islanders are New Zealand citizens, and while the islands are self-governing, New Zealand has some responsibility for their foreign affairs and defence. New Zealand's Foreign Minister, Winston Peters, called the situation "alarming and infuriating," emphasizing that the registry was "effectively undermining international efforts to cut off funding to Russia's war machine."

For Kenya, which adheres to international sanctions frameworks, the situation is a stark reminder of the complexities of global trade. The nation has previously halted oil imports from Iran to comply with US sanctions, demonstrating the economic pressures at play. The use of shadow fleets complicates efforts to maintain a stable, rules-based international order, which is critical for the economies of trading nations like Kenya.

As Western nations work to tighten the net on sanctions evaders, the focus will remain on flag registries like the one in the Cook Islands. The challenge underscores the difficulty of policing the high seas and preventing the flow of illicit funds that fuel global conflicts.