The simmering cold war within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has erupted into the open, with Embakasi East MP Babu Owino alleging a sinister plot by party cartels to engineer his political downfall ahead of the 2027 Nairobi gubernatorial race.

In a fiery address that pulled no punches, the youthful legislator drew a chilling parallel between his current predicament and the "political slaughter" of Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi in 2022. Wanyonyi, then the frontrunner for the ODM ticket, was unceremoniously forced to step down in favor of corporate technocrat Polycarp Igathe—a move that arguably handed the city to UDA’s Johnson Sakaja.

The "Tim Wanyonyi Script"

"I am not stupid," Babu declared to a rapturous crowd in Embakasi. "I see the meetings they are holding at night. They want to play the same game they played on Tim Wanyonyi. They used him, drained his resources, and then at the eleventh hour, they brought a stranger. I am telling them now: Babu is not Tim. I will not step down for anyone."

The MP's outburst points to deep fissures within the Orange party as the old guard struggles to contain the ambition of the "Young Turks." Babu Owino has been aggressively positioning himself as the heir apparent to the Nairobi throne, but whispers from Capitol Hill suggest the party hierarchy is uncomfortable with his abrasive brand of politics.

• The Trust Deficit: The ghosts of 2022 still haunt ODM in Nairobi. The disastrous decision to field Igathe left the party’s grassroots disillusioned. Babu is banking on this resentment, framing himself as the "people’s candidate" against the "boardroom candidate."
• The Succession Battle: With Raila Odinga eyeing the African Union Commission chairmanship, the scramble for control of the party’s soul is intensifying. Babu views the Nairobi governorship not just as a job, but as his launchpad for the presidency in 2032.

A Warning Shot

Political analyst Professor Herman Manyora observes, "Babu Owino is effectively holding a gun to the head of the ODM leadership. He is saying, 'Mistreat me, and I burn the house down.' It is a high-stakes gamble."

As the 2027 drums begin to beat, Babu Owino has drawn his line in the sand. The question is no longer if ODM will hold fair nominations, but whether the party can survive the ambition of its own children.