"This time is different." It is a phrase often heard during Iranian protests, usually before the regime crushes them. But as 2026 begins, veteran observers are seeing signs that the Islamic Republic may finally be reaching its terminal velocity. The catalyst is not ideology, but the collapse of the national currency.

With the Rial trading at 1.47 million to the dollar, the Iranian economy has effectively ceased to function. Hyperinflation has eroded the loyalty of the regime’s traditional base—the poor and the merchant class—creating a vacuum of support that force alone cannot fill.

The Volatility Index

Video analysis from Tehran shows a shift in tactics. Protesters are no longer just chanting; they are fighting back against the Basij militia. The burning of government banks and religious seminaries indicates a total rejection of the state’s institutions.

• The Leadership Void: Unlike 1979, there is no Khomeini figure leading the revolution. It is a horizontal, leaderless movement. While this makes it harder to decapitate, it also makes it harder to organize a transition.
• The US Card: President Trump’s "maximum pressure" is working economically, but politically it is a wildcard. His threats of military intervention are emboldening the street but also giving the regime a pretext to label all dissent as "foreign espionage."

Endgame Scenarios

Experts warn of two outcomes: a "Venezuelan" scenario where the regime clings to power over a ruined country, or a "Romanian" scenario where the security forces fracture and the leader falls violently. As the Rial continues its freefall, the clock is ticking not just for the economy, but for the Supreme Leader himself.