Love him or loathe him, Francis Atwoli remains the immovable object of Kenyan labour politics. As the Central Organization of Trade Unions (COTU) prepares for its elections, the veteran trade unionist looks set for a historic sixth term, driven by a workforce that values his political muscle over fresh blood.

Critics argue he has overstayed his welcome, but for the rank and file, Atwoli represents a shield against an increasingly aggressive state. In an era of high taxation and economic uncertainty, workers are betting on the "devil they know" to navigate the treacherous waters of the 2027 transition.

The Atwoli Factor

Delegates point to his track record of negotiating minimum wage increments and his ability to call the President directly as key assets. Unlike younger leaders who might be easily intimidated by the executive, Atwoli’s sheer volume—both literal and political—guarantees a seat at the table.

• Political Insurance: With the Housing Levy and SHIF deductions eating into payslips, unions feel they need a heavy hitter to push back against further raids on salaries.
• Global Networks: His influential position at the International Labour Organization (ILO) gives COTU global leverage that a newcomer would take years to build.
• The Alternative Void: A lack of a unified, charismatic challenger has made his re-election almost a formality.

Legacy on the Line

However, the sixth term comes with heavy baggage. The youth demographic, often trapped in the gig economy without union representation, views COTU as an old boys' club. Atwoli’s final act will be judged not by his longevity, but by whether he can modernize the union to serve the digital worker.