Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga has thrown down the gauntlet to the youthful ODM rebels calling for his retirement. "If you want my seat, come and take it at the National Delegates Conference (NDC)," he dared, signaling that the Odinga family will not cede control of the party without a fight.

Oburu’s challenge is directed at Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and his cohort, who have been agitating for a generational overhaul of the party leadership. They argue that Oburu represents the "status quo" that is holding ODM back.

The Power of the NDC

Oburu knows the chessboard. The NDC is typically populated by loyalist delegates handpicked by the old guard. By inviting the rebels to the conference, he is luring them onto his home turf where he controls the referees.

• Dynasty Defense: Oburu insists he is in leadership on merit, not blood. "I have fought for democracy longer than some of these critics have been alive," he retorted.
• The Babu Factor: Babu Owino has mobilized the youth online, but does he have the delegates? The upcoming NDC will be a test of whether "online noise" translates to "offline votes."
• Raila’s Silence: The party leader has remained studiously silent, allowing his brother to fight his own battles. It is a classic Raila tactic: let the factions exhaust themselves, then emerge as the unifying figure.

Civil War?

ODM is teetering on the brink of a civil war between its past and its future. Oburu’s defiance ensures that the next NDC will be a bruising, perhaps bloody, affair.