A catastrophic failure of planning is unfolding in slow motion across Kenya’s higher education sector. As the clock ticks down to the first cohort of Grade 10 students transitioning to tertiary education in just three years, political analyst Ochieng Kanyadudi has sounded a deafening alarm: our universities and TVETs are woefully, criminally unprepared.

The Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC), designed to revolutionize Kenya’s education system by prioritizing skills over rote memorization, is facing its biggest bottleneck yet. While the focus has been on Junior Secondary Schools (JSS), the institutions at the top of the pyramid have been sleeping on the job. The result? A potential "education apartheid" where millions of students graduate into a system that has no idea what to do with them.

"No Preparation of Worth"

Kanyadudi’s assessment is withering. "It is unfortunate to note that no preparation of worth is taking place in this regard in the higher institutions of learning," he writes. This is not just a bureaucratic oversight; it is a dereliction of duty. The shift to Competency-Based Education (CBE) requires a total overhaul of university curricula, lecturer training, and infrastructure. Yet, lecture halls remain designed for the 8-4-4 era, and professors continue to teach from notes written decades ago.

The stakes could not be higher. In three years, a wave of students accustomed to practical, learner-centered assessments will crash into rigid, theory-heavy university systems. The mismatch will be disastrous. We risk producing a "lost generation" of graduates whose skills are incompatible with the market and whose qualifications are unrecognized by the very institutions meant to refine them.

• The TVET Disconnect: TVETs, which are supposed to be the backbone of the CBE system, are arguably in worse shape. Lacking modern equipment and qualified trainers, many are little more than holding grounds for the youth.
• The Funding Black Hole: With the new university funding model already causing chaos, adding the cost of CBE transition—estimated in the billions of shillings—creates a financial precipice that Vice-Chancellors are ignoring at their peril.
• The Curriculum Void: Where are the new degree programs aligned with CBC pathways? Why are Senate meetings still discussing 8-4-4 grading systems instead of the future?

A Tsunami is Coming

The government must wake up. The Ministry of Education needs to stop obsessing over JSS uniform colors and start forcing universities to reform. Kanyadudi’s warning is clear: early preparation is not a luxury; it is a survival imperative. If we wait until 2029 to start thinking about this, we will have failed an entire generation.

The time for workshops and white papers is over. We need action. Universities must start retraining staff now. TVETs need to be equipped with industry-standard machinery now. The tsunami is on the horizon, and right now, our higher education captains are rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.