A new report reveals a chilling reality: while young Africans are fleeing farms for service jobs, they are trading stability for a lifetime of low-wage informality.

The narrative of African development has long hinged on a structural transformation: the shift of labor from the "primitive" farm to the "modern" office. But a groundbreaking report released today by the World Data Lab, titled Youth Employment Outlook 2026, shatters this optimistic illusion. It paints a picture of a continent transitioning not into industrial prosperity, but into a service-sector trap where low wages and informality reign supreme.

The Great Migration to Nowhere

The data is stark. As of 2025, agriculture still employs 47% of Africa’s youth—some 143 million souls. However, the sector is stagnant, with a projected growth rate of just 1.3 times over the next fifteen years. In contrast, the services sector is exploding, projected to grow 2.4 times and overtake agriculture as the primary employer of young Africans by 2033. On the surface, this looks like progress. Dig deeper, and the rot becomes visible.

"We are seeing a migration from poverty on the farm to poverty on the back of a motorbike," warns an economist familiar with the data. The report confirms that a staggering 90% of these new service jobs are in the informal sector. These are not contracts with benefits; they are hustles—unregulated, untaxed, and unprotected.

• The Degree Disconnect: Kenya churns out one million graduates annually, yet the formal economy can only absorb 300,000. The remaining 700,000, many highly skilled, are forced into the "gig economy," driving taxis or hawking goods to survive.
• The Gender Gap: The shift is particularly punishing for women. While leaving the farm often brings higher wages for men in transport and logistics, women are funneled into retail and hospitality roles where the gender pay gap widens to 94 cents on the dollar.

A Policy Emergency

Speaking at the launch, Labour and Skills Development Principal Secretary Shadrack Mwadime admitted the crisis. "We discovered that highly skilled Kenyans are also engaged in the informal sector," he stated, a rare admission of the systemic failure to create quality jobs. The governments response—the National Skills Policy 2023—aims to align curriculum with industry needs, but critics argue this is like putting a band-aid on a bullet wound.

The allure of the city and the service job is powerful, but without an industrial base to support it, Africa risks creating a permanent underclass of urban poor. The service sector boom is not a sign of economic maturity; it is a waiting room for a generation that was promised a future the economy cannot deliver.