Paranoia has gripped the heart of the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) as President William Ruto’s dalliance with the opposition enters a critical phase. Loyalists who stood by the President during the trenches of 2022 are now watching in horror as a team led by ODM heavyweight Oburu Oginga negotiates a power-sharing pact that could render them obsolete.

The "Handshake 2.0" is no longer a rumor; it is a structured reality. Sources confirm that Oburu Oginga, the elder brother to opposition chief Raila Odinga, is spearheading talks for a "pre-election coalition agreement" ahead of 2027. For the UDA rank and file, specifically the Mt Kenya and Rift Valley "shareholders," this is the ultimate betrayal—a repeat of the very merger politics they fought against in the Jubilee era.

The Displacement Anxiety

The mathematics of the deal is brutal. To accommodate ODM in government, current officeholders must give way. UDA MPs and Cabinet Secretaries fear a cabinet reshuffle that will see "Orange" faces replacing "Yellow" ones. "We are the children of the house," lamented Tana River Senator Danson Mungatana during a tense NGC meeting at State House. "Why are we being sidelined for strangers?"

The anxiety is compounded by the opacity of the talks. While the President insists the deal is for "national stability," insiders view it as a survival strategy for 2027—dumping the demanding Mt Kenya bloc in favor of a Nyanza-Western alliance. The 10-point MoU signed between the parties is being treated as a state secret, further fueling the fever.

• The Oburu Factor: By sending Oburu Oginga, the Odinga family is signaling that this is not just party business; it is dynastic business. The talks are high-level, irreversible, and protected by the highest offices in the land.
• The Casualties: Second-term MPs and heads of parastatals from the UDA strongholds are the most vulnerable. They lack the leverage to fight back against a President who has consolidated the opposition.
• The Deputy President Dilemma: The elephant in the room is the position of the Deputy President. An ODM-UDA pact inevitably isolates the DP, creating a besieged center of power within the presidency itself.

A Political Reconfiguration

The "fever" inside UDA is the temperature of a party in transition. President Ruto is ruthlessly pragmatic; he knows that to win in 2027, he needs a new map. The UDA "founders" are finding out that in politics, gratitude is a wasting asset.

As the March deadline for the coalition report approaches, the murmurs of rebellion are getting louder. The President has moved to calm fears, but the writing is on the wall: the UDA that won 2022 is dying, and a new, hybrid beast is being born. The only question is, who will be eaten during the birth?