The battle for the Coast region's political soul has taken a dramatic turn. Former Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa has officially defected from the ruling UDA coalition, signaling a potential return to the opposition fold—or the launch of a new "Mijikenda Nationalist" outfit.

The move has rattled the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which has long considered the Coast its impregnable fortress. Jumwa, a fiery orator with a cult-like following in Kilifi, commands significant grassroots sway. Her "homecoming" rally in Malindi was attended by thousands, where she declared, "I went to the government to find food for my people, but I found only empty plates."

The "Kingpin" Vacuum

Jumwa is exploiting the leadership vacuum left by former Governor Hassan Joho and current Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, who are seen by some as too "gentlemanly" to confront the national government. By adopting a radical, populist stance, Jumwa is positioning herself as the defender of Coastal land rights and economic interests.

• The ODM Dilemma: ODM leaders are reportedly split on how to handle her. Some view her as a traitor who cannot be trusted, while others argue that bringing her back into the fold is the only way to lock the Kilifi vote for 2027.
• The Ruto Loss: For President Ruto, Jumwa's exit is a significant blow. She was his point person in a hostile region. Her defection suggests that the "Hustler" narrative is losing its shine at the Coast amidst the high cost of living.

A Third Force?

Speculation is rife that Jumwa might team up with other disgruntled coastal leaders to form a regional party, bargaining with national coalitions as a bloc. "The Coast will no longer be a passenger in other people's vehicles," she warned. The political tides are turning, and the waves are getting rougher.