Global markets exhaled a collective sigh of relief as Japan and Switzerland posted marginal growth in Q4, narrowly avoiding the "technical recession" label that has haunted developed economies this year.

In the unforgiving arithmetic of global economics, a fraction of a percentage point often separates stability from crisis. Today, that fraction was 0.1%. Japan’s economy, the world’s fourth-largest, expanded by an annualized 0.2% (0.1% quarter-on-quarter) in the final three months of last year. It was an uninspiring performance, but it was enough to reverse the narrative of decline following a sharp contraction in the third quarter.

Switzerland mirrored this fragility, also posting 0.2% growth. Both nations are navigating a treacherous geopolitical landscape defined by U.S. tariffs and sluggish global demand. For Kenyan exporters who look to these mature markets for luxury goods and horticultural uptake, the news is a mixed blessing: the collapse was averted, but the boom is nowhere in sight.

Inside the Numbers

The data reveals economies that are surviving, not thriving. [...](asc_slot://start-slot-21)In Japan, the unexpected lifeline came from private consumption, which ticked up by 0.1%. However, the engines of growth—exports and capital investment—are sputtering.

• Export Slump: Japanese exports fell by 0.3%, a direct casualty of the "tariff wars" disrupting trans-Pacific trade.
• Domestic Demand: Inflation remains a stubborn ghost, eroding real wages and keeping household spending tepid.
• Currency Volatility: The Yen weakened immediately following the report, as traders bet that the Bank of Japan would lack the confidence to hike interest rates aggressively.

The "Soft Landing" Mirage

Economists warn that "avoiding recession" is a low bar for success. "Domestic demand made a positive contribution overall," noted Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, but the underlying trend is one of stagnation. For the Global South, this signals that the traditional engines of the world economy are running on fumes.

As Tokyo and Bern breathe a sigh of relief, the message to the rest of the world is clear: volatility is the new normal, and growth is no longer guaranteed.