The decade-long saga of Kenya’s oil dream has entered a decisive phase. Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi appeared before the National Assembly’s Energy Committee this morning, making an impassioned plea for the ratification of the Field Development Plan (FDP) submitted by Gulf Energy, the new operator of the Turkana oil blocks.

Wandayi revealed that the government is targeting "First Oil" by December 2026, a timeline that critics dismiss as overly ambitious. The project, inherited from British firm Tullow Oil after its exit last year, requires a capital injection of $3 billion (KES 390 billion) to construct the pipeline to Lamu. "We cannot afford another delay," Wandayi told MPs. "The window for fossil fuels is closing. If we do not monetize this resource now, it will remain in the ground forever."

The "Local Content" Hurdle

However, the path to ratification is fraught with political landmines. Turkana MPs, led by Woman Rep Cecilia Ngitit, disrupted the session, demanding that the revenue-sharing formula be revised upwards from 5% to 10% for the local community. They also demanded transparency on the deal between Gulf Energy and the state.

• The Deal: Gulf Energy acquired Tullow’s stake for a reported $120 million. The FDP outlines a phased approach, targeting production of 60,000 barrels per day initially.
• The Risk: If Parliament rejects the FDP, Gulf Energy has a contractual exit clause that could see the government slapped with a massive arbitration bill in London.

A Race Against Time

Energy analysts warn that investor confidence hangs by a thread. "TotalEnergies and Africa Oil already walked away," noted Patrick Obath, an oil and gas expert. "If Parliament plays hardball now, Kenya risks becoming a cautionary tale of resource nationalism gone wrong."