The fragile truce of the "Broad-Based Government" faces its first major stress test as ODM’s demand for the Deputy Presidency collides with the entrenched interests of Kithure Kindiki’s allies.

The political honeymoon is over. The "Broad-Based Government," a coalition of convenience between President William Ruto's UDA and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), has hit its first major iceberg. The trigger? A declaration by ODM stalwart and Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga that the Orange party will settle for nothing less than the Deputy President's seat in the 2027 General Election.

Oburu's statement, made with the casual weight of an elder statesman, has sent shockwaves through the Mt Kenya region. It is viewed not as a negotiation tactic, but as a direct declaration of war on the current Deputy President, Kithure Kindiki.

"Not Negotiable"

The response from Kindiki's backyard has been swift and ferocious. Led by Tharaka Nithi Governor Muthomi Njuki and Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku, allies of the DP have drawn a line in the sand. "The Deputy Presidency is not vacant," CS Ruku declared at a rally in Embu. "Kindiki Kithure is the Deputy President until 2032. If ODM wants the seat, they can wait for the post-Ruto era."

The sentiment reflects a deep anxiety in the Mountain region. having "donated" the Presidency to Ruto, they view the DP position as their irreducible minimum shareholding in the government. To cede it to ODM—their historical rivals turned strange bedfellows—would be political suicide.

The Handshake 2.0 Dilemma

President Ruto now finds himself in a precarious balancing act. He needs ODM's support to stabilize his government and pass legislation, but he cannot afford to alienate his primary voter base in Mt Kenya. Oburu Oginga, often the mouthpiece for the Odinga family's strategic thinking, is testing the waters. By demanding the Number Two slot, ODM is signaling that their support comes with a heavy price tag: succession.

• The Demand: Oburu states ODM eyes the DP seat in 2027.
• The Defense: Mt Kenya leaders declare Kindiki's position "Non-Negotiable."
• The Stakes: The stability of the UDA-ODM coalition ahead of the polls.

A Looming Divorce?

"We would rather donate Kindiki to ODM than lose the seat," Governor Njuki quipped, highlighting the absurdity of the situation. But beneath the rhetoric lies a serious power struggle. If Ruto entertains ODM's ambition, he risks a revolt in the Mountain. If he rejects it, the "Broad-Based Government" could collapse.

As 2027 approaches, the gloves are coming off. The handshake was friendly, but the scramble for the crown will be ruthless.