If 2025 was the year of policy shifts, 2026 is the year of the price tag. A scathing new report by the Rockefeller Institute has identified "overall cost, pricing, and affordability" as the single most critical issue facing global health this year.

The institute’s analysis paints a picture of a sector eating itself. Driven by inflation, labor shortages, and the vertical integration of providers, the cost of delivering care is outpacing economic growth. For the consumer, this means rising drug prices and higher out-of-pocket payments. For the poor, it means death. The report grimly predicts that without intervention, 22.6 million additional deaths could occur globally by 2030 due to the inability to afford basic care.

The Cost Drivers

The report highlights that the drivers of this inflation are structural. Staffing costs have exploded as the global shortage of health workers drives up wages. Simultaneously, the cost of supplies and technology—often priced in strong dollars—has become prohibitive for weaker economies. In Kenya, where the shilling fluctuates, the import bill for medical devices is becoming unsustainable.

Affordability is no longer just a patient problem; it is a provider problem. Hospitals are shutting down because they cannot afford to operate. The Rockefeller analysis suggests that we are entering a vicious cycle where high costs lead to delayed care, which leads to sicker patients, who then require even more expensive treatment.

The Affordability Agenda

The report calls for radical transparency in pricing and a global crackdown on profiteering. It identifies "Striving Survivors"—entities trying to adapt to this high-cost environment—as the bellwethers of the future. These organizations are cutting costs by shifting care from hospitals to homes and using AI to triage patients efficiently.

• The Kenyan Context: For Kenya, the report is a validation of the need to control input costs. If the SHIF cannot control the price of procedures, it will be bankrupt within a year.
• The Human Toll: Behind the percentages are real families choosing between food and medicine.

The warning is clear: unless we treat the economics of health as an emergency, the biology of health won’t matter.