Political Unrest Spills Over, Choking Vital Trade Artery

NAIROBI—Cross-border trade between Kenya and Tanzania at the crucial Taveta-Holili One-Stop Border Post (OSBP) has significantly stalled, leaving Kenyan traders in financial distress following heightened security operations by the Tanzanian military. The deployment is linked to political instability and protests stemming from Tanzania's contentious general election on Wednesday, October 29, 2025.

Kenyan traders and transport operators, particularly small-scale businesses and boda boda riders, report facing punitive and arbitrary restrictions from Tanzanian law enforcement. These measures include harassment, limited freedom of movement, and a new, unofficial 6:00 PM (EAT) curfew for Kenyan nationals operating past the Holili town entry point. Simon Mafusa, a boda boda chairperson, stated that operators can no longer transport passengers to key Tanzanian towns like Himo and Moshi, a previously routine and vital source of income. "Cross-border trade has stalled due to the heavy presence of Tanzanian soldiers," Mafusa said.

Economic Fallout and Regional Concerns

The disruption threatens a significant economic corridor. In 2024, Kenya exported goods worth KSh 67 billion to Tanzania, while imports stood at KSh 58 billion, underscoring the deep economic interdependence between the two East African Community (EAC) partners. The Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) warned on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, that the prolonged instability could severely impact this trade relationship. "If there is chaos in Tanzania, it means our businessmen who are exporting their products there are not able to access that market and we have to get concerned," said KAM Chief Executive Tobias Alando.

The Taveta-Holili OSBP is a lynchpin in this network, linking northern Tanzania to Kenya's Coast region and the Port of Mombasa. While Kenyan authorities have reportedly not imposed retaliatory measures on Tanzanian traders, the one-sided restrictions have been decried by Kenyan business owners as a violation of the EAC Common Market Protocol, which guarantees the free movement of goods and people.

Kenya's Trade Cabinet Secretary, identified in reports as Lee Kinyanjui, stated in early November that the tensions were "impeding movement and curtailing investor confidence" across the entire EAC bloc. The situation at other border points like Namanga has also been tense, with protests leading to temporary paralysis of trade and transport.

Diplomatic Engagement and Human Cost

The crisis has escalated beyond trade, with grave reports concerning the safety of Kenyan nationals in Tanzania. On Thursday, November 6, 2025, Kenya's Prime Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, Dr. Musalia Mudavadi, held talks with his Tanzanian counterpart, Ambassador Mahmoud Thabit Kombo, to address the welfare of Kenyans. This followed reports of rights violations and the confirmed deaths of at least two Kenyans amid the post-election crackdown.

One victim was identified as John Okoth Ogutu, a 33-year-old teacher who had lived in Dar es Salaam for a decade and was reportedly shot during the unrest. Another Kenyan, 35-year-old Albert Kamala from Taita Taveta County, was found dead near the border after reportedly being arrested in Moshi. His body showed signs of torture, prompting demands for a cross-border investigation. Other Kenyans who were detained and later released have recounted harrowing ordeals, including beatings and inhumane conditions in police cells.

In response to the escalating situation, Kenya's Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo announced on Thursday, October 30, 2025, that security had been heightened along all border points to prevent any spillover of violence. While diplomatic channels remain open, with Tanzania pledging to safeguard legitimate foreign residents, the situation on the ground for Kenyan traders at Taveta remains precarious, with an urgent need for a resolution to restore the free flow of commerce and ensure the safety of all EAC citizens. FURTHER INVESTIGATION REQUIRED.