Regional Stability at Risk Amidst Post-Election Violence

A severe political crisis unfolding in Tanzania following the Wednesday, October 29, 2025, general election has spilled across the Kenyan border, resulting in fatalities and significant economic disruption. The unrest, sparked by a poll that saw incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan secure a decisive victory after major opposition parties were barred from competing, now poses a direct challenge to regional stability and Kenyan interests.

On Thursday, October 30, the escalating tensions culminated in deadly violence at the Namanga One-Stop Border Post. According to reports, Tanzanian police fired across the border into a crowd of protesters, killing at least two Tanzanian nationals on the Kenyan side. The incident paralysed the critical trade artery for hours, with demonstrators burning tyres and destroying campaign materials. In response, Kenyan authorities have heightened security, with officials warning citizens against crossing the border to join the protests.

A Contested Election and a Violent Crackdown

The general election was marred by claims of irregularities and a government crackdown on dissent long before polling day. Tanzania's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) disqualified the main opposition party, Chadema, and another significant contender, ACT-Wazalendo, from the presidential race. This move effectively removed any serious challenge to President Hassan and the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, which has been in power since 1961.

Protests erupted in major cities like Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, and Arusha on election day and have continued since. The government has responded with force, imposing a nationwide internet blackout and curfews in key urban centres. Casualty figures remain contested amidst the communications shutdown. Chadema has alleged that as many as 700 people have been killed in clashes with security forces since Wednesday. While these numbers are unconfirmed, international bodies have reported grave findings; the United Nations has cited "credible reports" of at least 10 deaths, while Amnesty International stated it had received information of at least 100 killed. The Tanzanian army chief, General Jacob Mkunda, has referred to the protesters as "criminals."

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

The instability in Tanzania, a key member of the East African Community (EAC), carries significant economic and security implications for Kenya. The closure of the Dar es Salaam port and disruptions at the Namanga border threaten to snarl regional supply chains. The Port of Mombasa is already seeing an increase in diverted cargo vessels, which could strain its capacity and drive up transport costs for landlocked nations like Uganda and Rwanda. An extended crisis could also harm Tanzania's vital tourism sector, potentially benefiting Kenya as tourists reroute, but signalling broader regional instability that could deter international visitors in the long run.

The Kenyan government has taken a cautious official stance. Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo have both issued statements urging Kenyans to respect Tanzania's sovereignty and refrain from participating in the protests. This comes as reports indicate Kenyan youths have been attempting to cross the border to join the demonstrations. Meanwhile, Kenyan human rights organizations, including the Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC), have condemned the violence and called on the EAC and the African Union (AU) to hold President Hassan's government accountable for the repression.

President Hassan has reportedly been in contact with Kenyan President William Ruto, who is the current EAC chair, and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni to discuss the security situation. The EAC, which deployed an observer mission prior to the election, faces a critical test of its commitment to democratic principles and conflict resolution. The unfolding crisis serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of democratic institutions in the region and the potential for domestic political disputes to escalate into wider security and economic emergencies. FURTHER INVESTIGATION REQUIRED to ascertain the full scale of casualties and the official response from the EAC secretariat.