After nearly a quarter-century of pleading for protection, Kenya has finally taken the training wheels off its sugar industry. On November 30, 2025, the government formally exited the COMESA Sugar Safeguard regime, ending 24 years of quotas that shielded local millers from cheaper regional imports.

The decision, announced by Kenya Sugar Board CEO Jude Chesire, signals a newfound confidence. Kenya is betting that its revitalized sugar sector—bolstered by the leasing of state-owned mills like Nzoia and Chemelil—is now efficient enough to compete with giants like Eswatini and Egypt.

The Numbers Behind the Exit

The exit wasn't reckless; it was calculated. In 2025, domestic sugar production jumped by 76% to hit 815,454 metric tonnes, closing in on the national demand of 1.1 million tonnes. The "sugar deficit" that necessitated the safeguards is shrinking fast.

• Leasing Success: The handover of dying state mills to private investors (West Kenya, Kibos) has injected capital and modernized machinery. Farmers are being paid on time, encouraging cane planting.
• Controlled Imports: While the safeguard is gone, the market isn't a free-for-all. The Sugar Board will still manage imports to plug the remaining deficit, ensuring local prices don't crash.
• The Risk: Critics warn that if drought hits (as predicted for early 2026), production could dip, leaving the market exposed to cheap dumping. However, the government insists the sector is now robust enough to handle the shocks.

A New Era

Kenya is moving from protectionism to competitiveness. By ending the safeguard, Nairobi is telling its millers: "Shape up or ship out." It is a high-stakes gamble on the efficiency of the private sector to secure the nation's sweet tooth.