In a move that signals the end of an era for one of Africa’s most reliable development partners, Sweden has announced it will phase out development aid to Tanzania, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Liberia, and Bolivia. The decision, confirmed on Friday, marks a sharp geopolitical pivot as Stockholm redirects funds to bolster Ukraine’s defense against Russia.

For decades, the Swedish flag has been synonymous with schools, clinics, and civil society support across East and Southern Africa. But Benjamin Dousa, Sweden’s Minister for International Development Cooperation, made it clear that the days of broad, unconditional support are over. The government is scrapping what Dousa termed a "water sprinkler" approach—scattering resources too thinly—in favor of concentrated impact in Europe.

The Ukraine Priority

The numbers reveal a stark reallocation of resources. Sweden plans to increase its support for Ukraine to at least SEK 10 billion (approx. KES 137 billion) by 2026. To fund this massive commitment without printing new money, the budget for other regions must bleed.

"Ukraine is Sweden’s most important foreign policy and aid policy priority," Dousa emphasized during the press briefing. "There isn’t a secret printing press for banknotes for aid purposes, and the money has to come from somewhere."

This realignment will see the closure of Swedish embassies in Zimbabwe, Liberia, and Bolivia. While the embassy in Dar es Salaam remains open for now, the flow of development funds—which has totaled over SEK 70 billion (approx. KES 959 billion) to Tanzania since 1962—will dry up starting in 2026.

A Blow to Dar es Salaam

For Tanzania, a neighbor whose economy is deeply intertwined with Kenya’s, the news comes at a delicate time. Sweden has historically been one of Tanzania’s largest bilateral donors. However, Stockholm has grown increasingly critical of the returns on this investment.

Dousa cited a 2016 expert report suggesting that Swedish aid to Tanzania had, during certain periods, a "marginally positive" or even negative effect on poverty reduction by reducing incentives for local reform. This harsh assessment underpins the new strategy: aid will now be tied strictly to efficiency and Swedish national interests.

• The Cut List: Tanzania, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Liberia, Bolivia.
• The Beneficiary: Ukraine (Infrastructure, energy, and security).
• The Timeline: Gradual phase-out beginning in 2026.

The Regional Ripple Effect

For Kenyan observers, this shift is a wake-up call. The withdrawal of a donor as significant as Sweden from key regional economies like Tanzania and Mozambique suggests a broader trend: Western nations are looking inward and toward their own security borders.

While the transition will be gradual to allow these nations to seek alternative funding, the gap left behind will be measured in billions of shillings. It forces East African governments to confront a difficult reality—the era of relying on European goodwill to balance development budgets is rapidly closing.

"The money has to come from somewhere," Dousa repeated, a phrase that is likely to echo in finance ministries across the continent as they scramble to adjust to the new world order.