The Kenya Sugar Board (KSB) has embarked on a frantic damage-limitation exercise, flooding the media with optimistic data in a bid to quell growing public anxiety. With retail sugar prices climbing to a painful Ksh 157 per kilogram this January, the regulator is desperate to assure the nation that this is a temporary blip, not the start of another crisis.

The anxiety is well-founded. Following the implementation of the new 4% Sugar Development Levy, consumers have watched shelf prices tick upward, evoking painful memories of the 2023 shortages. However, the KSB’s latest dossier, released this morning, attempts to paint a picture of an industry in robust health, citing a massive surge in local production that should theoretically keep costs down.

The Production Paradox

The numbers presented by the Board are undeniably impressive, yet they clash with the reality at the till. According to the January 2026 report, the volume of sugarcane milled has skyrocketed by 30% to hit 827,482 metric tonnes. Consequently, local sugar production has jumped by 22%, ensuring that warehouses are theoretically full.

"There is no shortage," a senior KSB official insisted. "The price movement is a reaction to the levy and logistical adjustments, not a supply deficit."

• Ex-Factory Hikes: Despite the bumper harvest, millers have raised ex-factory prices by 5% to Ksh 6,569 per 50kg bag, passing the new tax burden directly to wananchi.
• The Levy Factor: The Sugar Development Levy, intended to fund factory maintenance and research, has become the immediate scapegoat for the price hike.
• Import Surge: Curiously, imports have also tripled to 32,517 MT in January, suggesting that traders are hedging against potential future instability.

A Bitter Pill for Consumers

For the average Kenyan household, statistics about "metric tonnes" mean little when tea time becomes a luxury. The rise from Ksh 149 to Ksh 157 in just a month represents a significant inflationary pressure on the breakfast table.

The disconnect between record production and rising prices exposes the inefficiencies of a supply chain riddled with middlemen. As the KSB preaches calm, the market dictates pain. Unless the Board can enforce efficiency to offset the new tax, Kenyans will be paying more for their sweetness, regardless of how much cane is crushed in the factories.