NAIROBI – More than two and a half years since plunging into a devastating civil war on Friday, 15 April 2023, Sudan is reeling from what the United Nations has declared the world's largest humanitarian and displacement crisis. The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is not merely a domestic power struggle; it is a war financed and exacerbated by a web of international actors competing for Sudan's vast natural resources, with severe consequences for stability across East Africa.

The war has displaced over 12 million people and killed tens of thousands, with some estimates suggesting figures as high as 150,000. As of November 2025, over 30 million people, more than half the population, require urgent humanitarian aid amid a spiraling famine. The recent capture of El-Fasher in North Darfur by the RSF on Saturday, 26 October 2025, marked a horrific new chapter, with widespread reports of mass killings, sexual violence, and ethnically targeted atrocities. This escalation underscores the grim trajectory of a conflict fueled by external interests.

A War Over Riches

At the heart of the conflict lies a battle for control over Sudan's immense wealth: gold, agricultural land, and a strategic Red Sea coastline. The RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, funds its war effort primarily through the control and smuggling of gold from mines in the Darfur region. According to UN experts and investigative reports, this illicit gold trade flows predominantly to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which serves as a major hub for laundering and selling the resource on the global market. In return, the UAE is widely accused of providing the RSF with sophisticated weaponry, drones, and financial support, often disguised as humanitarian aid delivered through neighbouring countries like Chad. The UAE has consistently denied these claims.

The SAF, commanded by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has also attracted foreign support. Egypt, concerned about border stability and the security of the Nile River, has provided military and political backing. More recently, reports indicate that Iran has supplied the SAF with drones, while Turkey has also provided military hardware.

Strategic Prizes: Farmland and Ports

Beyond gold, Sudan's potential as an agricultural breadbasket has drawn significant interest from Gulf nations facing food and water scarcity. Before the war, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE had invested billions of dollars in securing vast tracts of fertile Sudanese farmland. The ongoing conflict threatens these investments but also raises the stakes for controlling the country's future agricultural output.

Furthermore, Sudan’s 750-kilometre Red Sea coastline is a critical geopolitical asset, offering access to one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. Foreign powers, including Russia, Turkey, and Gulf states, have long sought to establish a military or commercial foothold at Port Sudan and other coastal locations to project influence and secure trade routes. This strategic competition adds another layer of complexity to the civil war, as both factions and their backers vie for control of this vital maritime gateway.

Regional Fallout: The Impact on Kenya

The repercussions of Sudan's collapse are being felt acutely across East Africa. The conflict has triggered the world's largest internal displacement crisis and sent over three million refugees fleeing into neighbouring countries, including South Sudan, Chad, Ethiopia, and Kenya, overwhelming already strained humanitarian resources. The influx of refugees places significant pressure on Kenya's security and social services, particularly in border regions like Turkana County.

Economically, the war has disrupted regional trade. Kenya, which counts Sudan as a key export market for goods like tea and coffee, has faced significant losses following trade disruptions and import bans imposed by the Sudanese military government.

Diplomatically, Kenya has been central to peace efforts through the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). However, these initiatives have been fraught with challenges. In mid-2023, an IGAD quartet led by President William Ruto was formed to mediate the crisis, but the process stalled amid accusations from the SAF that Kenya favoured the RSF, leading to the committee's dissolution in May 2025. The failure of regional diplomacy, compounded by the persistent interference of external patrons, has so far prevented any meaningful resolution, leaving millions of Sudanese trapped in a catastrophic, man-made disaster.