As the war in Sudan grinds into another bloody year, diplomatic efforts remain fixated on "elite bargaining"—cutting deals between generals in luxury hotels while Khartoum burns. Experts warn this approach is doomed to fail.

The conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has morphed from a power struggle into an existential ethnic war. Treating it as a mere political dispute that can be solved by sharing cabinet positions ignores the deep trauma and division on the ground.

The Flaw in the Plan

Mediation efforts, including those led by Kenya and IGAD, have focused on bringing General Burhan and Hemedti to the table. But these men no longer fully control the forces they unleashed. Warlords, tribal militias, and foreign mercenaries have entered the fray, creating a fractured landscape that defies centralized command.

• Civic Voices Ignored: The "Resistance Committees"—the grassroots civilian groups that actually feed the people—are locked out of the talks. Any deal that ignores them lacks legitimacy.
• The Economy of War: Both sides are fueling the conflict through the plunder of gold and state assets. Without targeted sanctions to cut off this funding, the war remains profitable for the elite.
• Regional Fallout: For Kenya, a prolonged war means a refugee crisis and the proliferation of illicit arms in the region. Stability in Sudan is a national security imperative for Nairobi.

A New Approach

Peace will not come from a handshake between generals. It requires a bottom-up dialogue that addresses justice, citizenship, and the role of the military in the state. Until then, the elite bargain is just a pause before the next massacre.