Two weeks ago, inside the hushed confines of the White House Cabinet Room, US President Donald Trump scanned the faces of his inner circle and made a prophecy that effectively silenced the room. Looking at his top advisers and administration officials, he declared that the next Republican presidential candidate was "probably sitting at this table."

It was a rare admission of political mortality from a leader who thrives on dominance. This moment marks the unofficial firing of the starting gun for the 2028 succession battle, revealing deep fractures within the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement that could destabilize the American political landscape just one year into his second term.

The Illusion of Eternity

The disconnect between the President's private realism and his public persona remains stark. At a rally in Pennsylvania last Tuesday, supporters chanted "four more years," urging a defiance of the US Constitution’s 22nd Amendment, which limits presidents to two terms. Trump fed the frenzy, describing the remaining three years of his term as an "eternity."

However, his private concession—"It's not going to be me"—signals a shift. For Kenyan observers, this dynamic is all too familiar: the delicate dance of a charismatic leader managing a base that refuses to let go, while simultaneously preparing for a future he will not control.

A Coalition Under Stress

The jockeying for position comes at a precarious time for the Republican Party. Despite holding the White House, the coalition is showing signs of fatigue. In last month's local elections, the party suffered significant losses among minority and working-class voters—the very demographic that propelled Trump’s 2024 comeback.

Internal discipline is also fraying. Key figures are openly feuding over policy direction, creating a chaotic environment in Washington. The discord has led to high-profile defections:

• Policy Feuds: Senior team members are clashing over the administration's economic and social agenda.
• High-Profile Exits: Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, once a staunch loyalist, has cut ties with the President's inner orbit.
• Base Alienation: Critics within the movement are accusing the President of losing touch with the "forgotten Americans" who put him in power.

The Race to Define 2028

The implications of this infighting extend beyond the Beltway. A distracted or divided US administration often leads to inconsistent foreign policy, which can ripple through to Nairobi in the form of unpredictable trade agreements or aid commitments.

With the President hinting at "electoral clashes to come," the battle to inherit the MAGA mantle is well under way. As analysts note, the question is no longer if the movement will survive Trump, but which version of it will emerge from the wreckage of the coming succession war.