Finnish President Alexander Stubb believes that former US President Donald Trump is the "only one who can force" Russian leader Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table to end the war in Ukraine. Stubb's remarks come as Trump is set to meet Putin in Hungary, following a recent White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

President Stubb, speaking to the BBC, emphasised Finland's unwavering stance against recognising occupied Crimea as part of Russia. He also expressed his desire to see Ukraine join both the European Union and NATO once the conflict concludes.

Diplomatic Engagements Amidst Conflict

The Finnish President's comments precede a series of high-level diplomatic engagements. On Friday, October 17, 2025, President Zelenskyy met with Trump at the White House, where he reportedly told the US president, "I think we can end this war with your help."

Meanwhile, Trump announced that Putin has agreed to a face-to-face meeting in Hungary. Trump stated on Friday, October 17, 2025, that Putin "wants to get it ended. I think that President Zelensky wants to get it ended. Now we have to get it done." Zelenskyy, while at the White House, affirmed Ukraine's readiness for talks in any format and its desire for peace, but stressed the need to "pressure" Putin into ending the war.

Historical Context and Finnish Perspective

This upcoming meeting in Hungary marks a significant development, especially after a previous summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska on August 15, 2025, did not yield a breakthrough or a subsequent meeting involving Zelenskyy. During a past golf game, Trump reportedly asked Stubb if he could trust Putin, to which Stubb responded negatively.

Finland has consistently condemned Russia's military actions in Ukraine, which began with a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, in violation of the UN Charter and international law. The country strongly supports Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Finland has also implemented EU sanctions against Russia in response to the illegal annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine.

Laws, Policy, and Governance

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin in March 2023 for alleged involvement in the abduction of children from Ukraine. Despite this, Hungary has indicated it will not act on the warrant, with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto stating on Friday, October 17, 2025, that Hungary would ensure Putin's safe entry and exit for the planned summit in Budapest. Hungary is also in the process of withdrawing from the ICC.

Stakeholders and Testimonies

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a close ally of Trump and a leader who has maintained ties with Moscow, has enthusiastically welcomed the prospect of the Trump-Putin summit in Budapest, calling it "great news for the peace-loving people of the world." Orbán has positioned Hungary as a "pro-peace country" and an "island of peace" in Europe.

Stubb has previously expressed confidence in Trump's ability to broker a peace deal in Ukraine, drawing parallels to a recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza. He noted that Trump has been "stepping up the pressure" on Russia alongside NATO allies. Stubb also believes Trump is shifting from a "carrot" to a "stick" approach in dealing with Putin, suggesting that tougher sanctions, higher tariffs, and more active use of American weapons could be considered.

Evidence and Data

• August 15, 2025: Trump-Putin summit held in Alaska, concluding without a breakthrough on the Ukraine war.
• October 17, 2025: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets US President Donald Trump at the White House.
• October 17, 2025: Trump announces an upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Hungary.
• March 2023: International Criminal Court issues an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin.
• March 2014: Russia illegally annexes Crimea, leading to EU sanctions.

Risks and Implications

The planned meeting in Budapest raises questions about Putin's travel, given the ICC arrest warrant. While Hungary has pledged to ensure his safety, his route would likely involve flying over EU and NATO member states, posing potential diplomatic and logistical challenges.

European leaders have expressed some disquiet about the Trump-Putin summit, with some suggesting that Putin is attempting to derail talks between Trump and Zelenskyy. There are calls for EU leaders to take a firm stance on Russia and counter Putin's influence over Trump during the summit.

Unknowns and Controversies

The exact date for the Trump-Putin summit in Budapest remains unconfirmed, though Trump suggested it could occur within a couple of weeks. It is also unclear whether Zelenskyy will be invited to join the negotiations in Budapest as part of a trilateral summit.

Timeline and Next Steps

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are expected to meet next week to discuss the upcoming summit.

What to Watch

Observers will be closely watching for the confirmed date of the Trump-Putin summit in Budapest and any details regarding the format of the meeting, particularly whether President Zelenskyy will participate. The discussions between Secretary Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov next week will also be crucial in shaping the agenda and expectations for the summit.