Prime Minister Keir Starmer has staked his party's reputation on a crucial by-election in Manchester, declaring that "Only Labour can beat Reform" in the Gorton and Denton constituency. With the far-right surging in the polls, the vote has transformed into a referendum on the Labour government's faltering popularity.

The by-election, triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne following a "vile" WhatsApp scandal, comes at a perilous time for Starmer. Reform UK, emboldened by Nigel Farage's rhetoric, is aggressively targeting the white working-class vote in Denton, aiming to replicate their recent successes in the north. Starmer's visit to the constituency today was a desperate bid to shore up the "Red Wall" that is showing cracks once again.

The Andy Burnham Shadow

The campaign has been marred by internal Labour infighting. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was controversially blocked by the Labour National Executive Committee (NEC) from standing as the candidate, a move widely seen as an attempt by Starmer's allies to neutralize a potential leadership rival. "It is simply untrue that I was told I would be blocked," Burnham told reporters, barely concealing his frustration.

Starmer, however, insisted that the fight is binary. "There is only one party of the right, and that is the Conservatives," he claimed, trying to frame Reform UK as a spoiler. "But here in Gorton, the choice is between Labour's delivery and Reform's fantasy."

• The Green Threat: It is not just the right that Labour has to worry about. The Green Party is mobilizing heavily in the Gorton side of the seat, appealing to young professionals and Muslim voters disillusioned by Labour's stance on Gaza. A split progressive vote could hand the seat to Reform on a platter.
• The Numbers: Labour defended a 13,000 majority in 2024, but current polling suggests a collapse in support. If Reform UK overturns this majority, it would be a catastrophic blow to Starmer's authority, potentially triggering a leadership crisis.

"Toxic Division"

Reform UK's candidate, Matthew Goodwin, has campaigned on a platform of "taking back control" from the "London elite," a message that resonates in the post-industrial pockets of Denton. Starmer dismissed this as "toxic division," but the mood on the ground is volatile.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, the stakes could not be higher. For Starmer, a loss here isn't just a lost seat; it is a signal that his government is losing the country.