The drums of war are beating louder in Juba. In a stern, no-nonsense directive that has sent chills through the ranks, South Sudan’s Army Chief, General Santino Deng Wol, has issued a seven-day ultimatum to his commanders: crush the simmering rebellion in Jonglei State or face the consequences.

Addressing troops at the Bilpam headquarters, General Wol did not mince his words. "The time for negotiations in the bush is over," he declared, his fatigues pressing against the lectern. "We cannot have a country with two armies. You have one week to clear the criminals terrorizing our people in Bor and Pibor. Total neutralization is the order."

A Fragile Peace at Risk

This aggressive posture marks a dangerous escalation in South Sudan’s fragile transition. The rebellion, led by holdout groups who refused to sign the revitalized peace agreement, has been a thorn in the flesh of the Juba administration. By ordering a full-scale military offensive, the government is signaling that its patience has run out.

However, military experts warn that a "seven-day war" is a myth. The swampy terrain of Jonglei is a guerrilla paradise, and a heavy-handed crackdown risks significant collateral damage among civilians, potentially fueling the very insurgency the army seeks to extinguish.

• The Kenyan Stake: For Nairobi, this rattle of gunfire is worrying. South Sudan is a key trade partner and a member of the East African Community. Instability in Juba means refugees streaming into Kakuma and a disruption of the transport corridor. President Ruto’s administration will be watching closely, likely working backchannels to urge restraint.
• Humanitarian Nightmare: Aid agencies are already sounding the alarm. A military offensive in the middle of the dry season could displace thousands of families who are already grappling with food insecurity. The UN has urged all parties to protect civilians, but in the heat of battle, such pleas often fall on deaf ears.

The General's Gamble

General Wol’s ultimatum is a gamble. If the army succeeds, it solidifies the government’s authority ahead of the planned elections. If it gets bogged down in a bloody stalemate, it exposes the weakness of the state security apparatus and could embolden other militia groups across the country.

The clock is ticking. For the soldiers in the barracks and the rebels in the bush, the next 168 hours will determine whether South Sudan steps back from the brink or plunges into another cycle of violence.