Tension has enveloped Kampala as opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, alias Bobi Wine, claims he is effectively under house arrest. Military and police units have reportedly surrounded his Magere residence just hours after provisional results showed incumbent President Yoweri Museveni with a commanding lead.

The Electoral Commission’s early tally puts the 81-year-old Museveni ahead with 76.25% of the vote, while Bobi Wine trails at 19.85%. The National Unity Platform (NUP) has rejected these figures, citing "massive fraud" and ballot stuffing, allegations made harder to verify due to a nationwide internet blackout imposed since Tuesday.

Democracy in the Dark

"They have jumped the fence and taken control of my compound," Bobi Wine tweeted moments before his communications went dark. "This is not an election; it is a military operation."

• The Blackout: The Uganda Communications Commission (UCC) shut down internet gateways to "curb misinformation," a move condemned by the US State Department and the UN Human Rights Office.
• The Violence: At least seven people have been reported dead in post-election skirmishes in Butambala, with police accusing opposition "goons" of attacking a tallying center.

The Kenyan Ripple Effect

Nairobi is watching with bated breath. Uganda is Kenya’s largest trading partner, and instability next door threatens the critical Northern Corridor transport route. Sources at the Busia and Malaba borders report heightened security checks, with truck drivers advised to exercise extreme caution.

For President Ruto, Museveni’s continued grip on power offers continuity in regional EAC affairs, but the heavy-handed tactics used to secure it may strain diplomatic optics. As the tallying enters its final phase, the question remains: will the Pearl of Africa remain peaceful, or is the worst yet to come?