President Samia Wins Amidst Allegations of Irregularities

Tanzania's National Electoral Commission (NEC) on Saturday, November 1, 2025, declared incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan the winner of the October 29 general election. Official results show President Hassan of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party securing a commanding 97.95% of the vote, granting her a first full elected term in office. She assumed the presidency in March 2021 following the death of her predecessor, John Magufuli.

The election, however, has been marred by significant controversy, including claims of electoral irregularities, the suppression of opposition, and violent protests across the nation. The lead-up to the election saw the disqualification of major opposition candidates, including Tundu Lissu of the Chadema party and Luhaga Mpina from the Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT-Wazalendo). Lissu is currently imprisoned on treason charges after calling for electoral reforms. These actions effectively removed any significant challenge to President Hassan and the CCM, which has been in power since Tanzania's independence in 1961.

Widespread Protests and Security Crackdown

The announcement of the election results has been met with widespread demonstrations in major cities such as Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, and Dodoma. Protesters have cited the exclusion of opposition leaders and alleged election rigging as the reasons for the unrest. In response, the Tanzanian government has deployed the military, imposed a nationwide curfew, and implemented an internet shutdown that began on election day, Wednesday, October 29. The government has described the protests as "isolated incidents" and stated that security measures are temporary.

Reports on casualties from the clashes between security forces and protesters vary significantly. The United Nations has cited credible reports of at least 10 deaths, while the main opposition party, Chadema, claims that around 700 people have been killed since the protests began. Human rights organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have voiced alarm over the situation, citing arbitrary arrests, enforced disappearances, and the use of lethal force against protesters. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called for restraint and a thorough investigation into all allegations of excessive force.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

The political instability in Tanzania, a key member of the East African Community (EAC), has significant implications for Kenya and the wider region. A stable Tanzania is crucial for regional trade, security, and economic integration. Kenyan businesses with operations in Tanzania are adopting a cautious approach, concerned that post-election instability could disrupt cross-border trade and investments. The political developments are being closely watched across East Africa, where concerns are growing about a broader trend of shrinking democratic space.

International and regional bodies have had a limited role in observing the election. While the EAC and the African Union (AU) deployed observer missions, their presence has been criticized by some for potentially legitimizing a flawed electoral process. Several European nations and the United Nations Development Programme did not participate in traditional election observation. The conduct of the election and its violent aftermath will likely shape Tanzania's diplomatic relationships and its role within the EAC for the foreseeable future. Analysts suggest that the lack of a competitive election could undermine President Hassan's legitimacy and may affect the country's long-term economic potential.