President William Ruto is set to deliver his third State of the Nation Address today, Thursday, November 20, 2025, before a joint session of Parliament, in a speech anticipated to be dominated by the stark economic realities facing Kenyans. The address, a constitutional requirement under Article 132, obligates the Head of State to report on the progress made in achieving national values, fulfilling international obligations, and the state of national security.

However, for millions of citizens, the constitutional formalities are secondary to a more pressing question: will the address offer tangible solutions to the crushing cost of living, or will it be another exercise in political oratory? Public sentiment, shaped by persistent inflation and controversial tax policies like the Finance Act 2025, remains skeptical. A September 2025 survey by Infotrak revealed that 40% of Kenyans blame escalating taxes for the high cost of living, with 79% stating their economic situation is worse than the previous year.

Economic Promises Under the Microscope

At the heart of the President's address will be the performance of his administration's signature economic policy, the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA). This agenda, designed to uplift low-income earners, hinges on five pillars: Agriculture, MSME development, Affordable Housing, Healthcare, and the Digital Superhighway. The President is expected to highlight achievements under these pillars, including the Hustler Fund, the affordable housing scheme, and fertilizer subsidies aimed at boosting food security.

The Hustler Fund, launched in November 2022 to provide affordable credit to small businesses, has disbursed significant amounts, reaching millions of beneficiaries. However, its impact on poverty reduction remains a subject of debate, with a 2024 Central Bank of Kenya report indicating that a significant portion of users were from middle and higher-income households. Furthermore, default rates have been a persistent challenge.

The Affordable Housing Program, funded by a contentious 1.5% levy on salaried Kenyans, has also faced criticism. While the government points to numerous ongoing projects, critics argue that the pace is slow and not a single unit had been handed over as of early 2025. Questions also linger over the transparency of the fund and whether the levy constitutes a tax or a saving, a point of confusion even among government officials.

Debt, Taxes, and Growth Forecasts

President Ruto's speech will be delivered against a backdrop of a formidable public debt portfolio. As of September 2025, Kenya's public debt crossed the KSh 12 trillion mark for the first time, standing at 67.3% of GDP. While credit rating agencies in August 2025 noted improved external funding stability, the sheer size of the debt continues to exert pressure on public finances, with debt servicing consuming a large portion of revenue. This fiscal pressure is a key driver behind the government's aggressive taxation policies, which have proven deeply unpopular. A TIFA Research poll in September 2025 found that 65% of Kenyans believe the Finance Act has worsened the cost of living.

The administration is likely to counter this narrative by pointing to stabilizing macroeconomic indicators. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank project Kenya's GDP to grow by around 4.8% to 5.2% in 2025, a gradual recovery. Inflation has also eased, with the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) forecasting it to remain stable around 5.25%. However, the disconnect between these macroeconomic figures and the lived reality of households struggling with high food and fuel prices will be a key challenge for the President to address.

Security and Governance

Beyond the economy, the President is constitutionally mandated to report on the state of national security. Key concerns include ongoing challenges with organized crime, banditry, and the persistent threat of terrorism, particularly along the border with Somalia. The address may also touch on governance issues, including the fight against corruption and the aftermath of deadly anti-tax protests in 2024 and 2025, which raised concerns about police brutality and the right to assembly.

As legislators, diplomats, and the public tune in at 2:30 PM EAT, the ultimate measure of the President's speech will not be the policies it recounts, but the hope and credibility it inspires. For a nation weary of economic hardship, detailed plans for easing the burden on ordinary citizens will matter more than celebratory statistics. The key question remains whether the address will mark a turning point in connecting the government's agenda with the daily needs of its people, or if it will widen the chasm between political promises and public reality.