Economic Realities Take Centre Stage

President William Ruto will deliver his third State of the Nation Address before a joint session of Parliament on Thursday, November 20, 2025, at 2:30 PM EAT. The address, a constitutional requirement under Article 132, comes at a critical juncture as his administration navigates a complex economic landscape marked by high public debt, contentious tax policies, and sustained public anxiety over the cost of living. The speech is expected to be a robust defence of the government's economic agenda while outlining future priorities in security and social welfare.

At the forefront of public concern is the state of the economy. According to a November 18, 2025, report from the Controller of Budget, Kenya's public debt surged to KSh 11.7 trillion in the 2024/25 financial year, an increase of KSh 1.1 trillion from the previous year. This debt level now stands at 67.8% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The government is expected to spend KSh 1.6 trillion on debt servicing this year alone, consuming over 70% of ordinary revenue. In this context, President Ruto is anticipated to detail his administration's fiscal consolidation strategy, including measures to manage borrowing and enhance revenue collection through the controversial Finance Act, 2025. The Act, which received presidential assent on June 26, 2025, introduced several amendments to tax laws, including restricting the carrying forward of tax losses to five years.

While some macroeconomic indicators show cautious optimism—with the Mastercard Economics Institute projecting a 4.7% GDP growth for 2025 and inflation stabilizing around 4.8%—many Kenyans report that these figures have not translated into tangible relief from high food and energy prices. The President is expected to address these concerns by highlighting interventions such as the subsidised fertiliser program aimed at boosting agricultural productivity.

Spotlight on Flagship Social Programmes

The performance of the administration's key social programmes will also be under intense scrutiny. The transition from the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) to the new Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF) has been a major policy shift. Operational since October 1, 2024, SHIF requires a mandatory 2.75% contribution of gross monthly income. However, its implementation has faced challenges, including payment delays to hospitals. As of August 25, 2025, the Social Health Authority (SHA) had paid out KSh 53 billion to hospitals against claims worth KSh 82.7 billion, with KSh 10.6 billion in claims being rejected. Many Kenyans await clarity on how the government will resolve these bottlenecks to ensure uninterrupted access to healthcare.

Similarly, the Affordable Housing Programme, a cornerstone of the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), has had mixed results. While the housing levy collected KSh 73.2 billion in the year ending June 2025, exceeding its target, the actual delivery of homes has been slow. A report from November 2025 showed that only 1,795 units were delivered in that period, a small fraction of the ambitious 200,000 annual target. Despite the slow pace, the programme has received international recognition, winning a global award in Cape Town in November 2025 for its role in promoting urbanisation. The President is likely to highlight the programme's successes in job creation and stimulating the manufacturing sector while addressing the delivery gap.

Security and Governance Agenda

National security remains a key priority, and the address is expected to provide an update on the government's efforts to tackle banditry, terrorism, and organised crime. A security report released by the Interior Ministry in May 2025 indicated significant progress, with banditry-related deaths in the first quarter of the year falling to 21, down from 58 in the same period in 2024. However, challenges such as the proliferation of illegal firearms and political interference persist. The President is also expected to touch on Kenya's role in regional stability, given ongoing security concerns in neighbouring countries.

Governance and the fight against corruption are also anticipated themes. Following a turbulent political year that saw youth-led protests against the Finance Bill and the subsequent impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in October, the public will be listening for commitments to accountability and institutional reform. The address provides a platform for the President to reassure the nation and articulate a clear path forward, balancing fiscal responsibility with the urgent need to ease the economic burden on its citizens.