Nairobi, Kenya – The political landscape in Kenya is abuzz with speculation after President William Ruto's comments regarding the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at the funeral of its late leader, Raila Odinga, on Sunday, October 19, 2025, in Bondo, Siaya County. Political analyst Professor Macharia Munene, a scholar of history and international relations at the United States International University-Africa (USIU-Africa), suggested that President Ruto might be actively managing the affairs of the opposition party.

Professor Munene, speaking to a local television station, highlighted President Ruto's assertion that he would not permit the fragmentation of ODM. "President Ruto said he would not allow the breaking of ODM. There is trouble in paradise. He will not allow it because President Ruto might be running ODM," Professor Munene stated. This observation has fueled intense public discourse, particularly in the wake of visible disunity among ODM leaders during and after Odinga's burial.

Historical and Political Context

Raila Odinga, who passed away on Wednesday, October 15, 2025, at the age of 80 in India due to cardiac arrest, was a towering figure in Kenyan politics, having served as Prime Minister from 2008 to 2013. His death has left a significant void within the ODM, a party he founded and shaped into a formidable opposition force. Odinga's influence extended beyond his party, as he was instrumental in the struggle for multi-party democracy in the 1990s and played a key role in the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution.

The relationship between President Ruto and the late Odinga had evolved from a bitter rivalry to a working partnership in the months leading up to Odinga's death. President Ruto himself described Odinga's passing as a "profound personal loss" and acknowledged the close bond they had forged. He pledged to support and respect ODM, emphasizing the importance of a strong opposition for Kenya's democracy and economic stability.

Laws, Policy, and Governance

The President's remarks about safeguarding ODM's unity align with the broader principle of fostering robust political institutions, which are considered essential for investor confidence and stable governance. However, the perception of the ruling party influencing an opposition party raises questions about the independence of political entities and the health of multi-party democracy in Kenya. Political analyst Barrack Muluka, a seasoned publishing editor and strategic communications consultant, has previously voiced concerns about the Executive's influence over other arms of government, including Parliament.

Stakeholders and Testimonies

The internal divisions within ODM were evident during Odinga's funeral, with several party members publicly clashing over the party's future leadership and direction. ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, for instance, publicly vowed to protect the party from internal wrangles and uphold Odinga's political vision, even as he faced criticism from some party members. Odinga's sister, Ruth Odinga, also called for unity within the ODM, revealing that her late brother's last message to her emphasized the need for the party to remain strong and united.

Barrack Muluka echoed Professor Munene's concerns, characterizing the tensions within ODM as part of a larger political realignment post-Odinga. He had previously stated in August 2025 that ODM was experiencing a "slow puncture" and was likely to implode. Some analysts, like Dismas Mokua, believe that "ODM party was Raila and Raila was ODM," suggesting the party is vulnerable to splitting without his unifying presence.

Evidence and Data

Risks and Implications

The perceived involvement of the President in ODM's internal affairs could undermine the credibility of the opposition and potentially lead to a less vibrant multi-party system. A weakened opposition might reduce government accountability, a critical component of democratic governance. Furthermore, the internal divisions within ODM, exacerbated by the succession question, could lead to fragmentation, potentially diminishing its political influence in future elections.

Unknowns and Controversies

While Professor Munene's claims have generated significant debate, the extent of President Ruto's alleged influence over ODM remains unverified. The President's statements could be interpreted as a genuine concern for democratic stability, given his recent working relationship with the late Odinga. However, the timing and directness of his remarks have fueled suspicion among some political observers and ODM members.

Timeline and Next Steps

The ODM National Executive Committee (NEC) has already appointed Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, Raila Odinga's elder brother, as the acting party leader. This interim leadership is tasked with navigating the party through this transitional period. The party is expected to hold further meetings to address the leadership vacuum and chart its future course, particularly with the 2027 general elections on the horizon.

What to Watch

The coming months will be crucial for ODM as it seeks to redefine its identity and leadership without Raila Odinga. Observers will be keenly watching how the party manages its internal divisions, whether a unifying figure emerges, and how its relationship with the ruling Kenya Kwanza administration evolves. The impact of President Ruto's statements on ODM's internal dynamics and the broader political landscape will also be a key area of focus.