President William Ruto on Monday, October 20, 2025, led Kenyans in commemorating Mashujaa Day at Ithookwe Stadium in Kitui County, dedicating the celebrations to the memory of the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. In a speech that outlined an ambitious vision for the nation's future, President Ruto emphasised key pillars for economic transformation aimed at propelling Kenya to first-world status within the current generation.

The President posthumously awarded Raila Odinga the Chief of the Order of the Golden Heart of Kenya (C.G.H.), the country's highest decoration, acknowledging his immense contributions to Kenya's democracy and development. Ruto described Odinga as a "towering patriot, resolute statesman, and a quintessential hero," whose life offered lessons in love of country, unity, reconciliation, optimism, and sacrifice.

Economic Transformation Agenda

President Ruto highlighted three core priorities for his administration: food security, value addition and manufacturing, and infrastructure development. He stressed that Kenya's over-reliance on food imports, costing over KSh 500 billion annually, is economically unsustainable and a threat to national sovereignty. To counter this, the government plans to modernise agriculture through irrigation, aiming to bring at least 2 million acres under irrigation by constructing 50 mega dams nationwide.

On industrialisation, President Ruto declared that Kenya must transition from a consumer economy to a production-driven one, moving away from exporting raw materials to finished goods. This strategy involves establishing Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in areas like Vipingo, Dongo Kundu, and Naivasha, in partnership with the African Export-Import Bank, to host textile, agro-processing, assembly, and light manufacturing industries, thereby creating thousands of jobs.

Infrastructure development was identified as the third pillar, with President Ruto pledging an ambitious programme to enhance connectivity and economic integration. This includes dualing at least 1,000 kilometres of major highways, such as the Rironi–Nakuru–Mau Summit–Eldoret–Malaba road and the Mombasa–Nairobi highway. Additionally, plans are underway to construct an extra 10,000 kilometres of new tarmac roads and complete the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) line from Naivasha to Kisumu and onward to Malaba, linking Kenya with Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Governance and Youth Empowerment

President Ruto underscored that national transformation requires unity and inclusivity beyond political affiliations, noting his consultations with various leaders, including former President Uhuru Kenyatta. He reiterated that Kenya's progress is a national, inclusive mission.

In a move to empower the youth, President Ruto announced the disbursement of funds under the World Bank-backed NYOTA Programme, starting November 4. This KSh 20 billion initiative aims to reach 800,000 young people through business start-ups, technical training, and innovation support, with grants of KSh 50,000 each for entrepreneurs. A nationwide verification exercise for eligible youth will commence on Friday, October 24, across all 290 constituencies.

Economic Outlook and Fiscal Policy

Kenya's economy is projected to grow by 5.4% in 2024 and 5.6% in 2025, driven by services and household consumption, according to the African Development Bank Group. The Central Bank of Kenya projects a 5.5% growth rate for 2025. The Mastercard Economics Institute forecasts a 4.7% GDP growth for Kenya in 2025, with consumer spending rising by 4% and inflation stabilising at 4.8%. However, the World Bank projects a slightly lower real GDP growth of 4.5% in 2025, gradually increasing to 5.0% in 2026–27, citing challenges such as high interest rates and subdued business sentiment.

The government's fiscal policy for the Financial Year (FY) 2025/26 aims for a growth-oriented fiscal consolidation plan, targeting a reduction in public debt growth and implementing a robust liability management strategy. The fiscal deficit is projected to moderate to 4.5% of GDP in FY 2025/26. Emphasis will be placed on revenue mobilisation through tax administration and policy reforms, including the implementation of the National Tax Policy and Medium-Term Revenue Strategy 2024/25-2026/27.

Unanswered Questions and Next Steps

While the government has outlined ambitious targets, the successful implementation of large-scale irrigation projects and the establishment of numerous Special Economic Zones will require significant coordination and sustained investment. The impact of global economic shifts and potential external shocks on Kenya's economic projections also remains a factor to watch. The effectiveness of the new tax administration reforms in boosting revenue collection without unduly burdening citizens will be crucial for fiscal stability.

What to Watch

Kenyans will be keenly observing the progress of the NYOTA Programme disbursements and the nationwide verification exercise for youth beneficiaries. The government's efforts to modernise agriculture and attract investment into manufacturing within the Special Economic Zones will be key indicators of the economic transformation agenda's success. Furthermore, the ongoing infrastructure projects, particularly the dualing of major highways and the extension of the SGR, will be critical for enhancing trade and connectivity.