The road to a 2027 "Super Coalition" between President William Ruto’s UDA and Raila Odinga’s ODM is facing its first major potholes. As the two sides prepare to form a joint technical team, sticking points have emerged that threaten to derail the talks before they even begin in earnest.

At the center of the friction is the implementation of the "10-Point Agenda," a memorandum of understanding signed between Ruto and the late Raila Odinga. ODM, now led by the veteran Dr. Oburu Oginga, is insisting that full implementation of this agenda is a pre-condition for any electoral pact. UDA, however, is keen to move straight to power-sharing mechanics.

The Running Mate Dilemma

"We are not just here to clap hands," a senior ODM MP told the Nation. "If we are bringing the Nyanza and Coast vote baskets, we need a guarantee on the Deputy President slot." This demand has sent jitters through Mount Kenya, where Deputy President Kithure Kindiki’s allies see the handshake as a direct threat to their stake in the government.

President Ruto is performing a delicate balancing act. He needs Oburu to secure his Nyanza flank and guarantee a "landslide" victory, but he cannot afford to alienate his base in Central Kenya. The proposal to zone regions—leaving Nyanza exclusively to ODM and Rift Valley to UDA—is also causing friction among grassroots aspirants who feel they are being sacrificed on the altar of coalition building.

• The March 7 Deadline: Time is ticking. The joint committee has until March 7 to table a report on the status of the 10-point agenda. Oburu has made it clear: if the report is unsatisfactory, the deal is off. "We will not enter a marriage with a partner who cannot keep their promises," he warned at a rally in Siaya.
• The Ghost of Handshakes Past: Hovering over the talks is the memory of previous failed coalitions. Both sides are wary of betrayal. UDA hardliners argue that ODM is bringing "baggage" into the government, while ODM loyalists fear being used to stabilize Ruto's term only to be dumped in 2027.

A High-Stakes Poker Game

As the technical teams retreat to Naivasha next week, the atmosphere is tense. This is no longer just about unity; it is a high-stakes poker game for the soul of the next government. Ruto wants a legacy; Oburu wants a future for his party. Whether they can find a middle ground without tearing their respective houses apart remains the billion-shilling question.