Russian intelligence is reportedly targeting Belgian politicians and finance chiefs in a high-stakes campaign over billions in frozen assets earmarked to support Ukraine.

This standoff in Brussels could determine the flow of critical funds to Ukraine, potentially altering a conflict that has driven up fuel and food prices for ordinary Kenyans. The war has been linked to a 2.8% hit on Kenya's GDP, with rising fertilizer and energy costs slowing economic recovery.

High-Stakes Financial Standoff

At the heart of the issue are €185 billion (approx. KES 25.9 trillion) in Russian central bank assets, frozen by the European Union after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The majority of these funds are held by Euroclear, a securities depository based in Brussels, making Belgium the focal point of the dispute.

EU leaders are currently debating a plan to use these assets to secure a loan of up to €90 billion (approx. KES 12.6 trillion) to maintain Kyiv’s war effort through 2026 and 2027. However, the Belgian government has voiced serious concerns about the legality of the scheme. Officials in Brussels fear potential lawsuits from Russia and are demanding guarantees that Euroclear will be fully reimbursed if Moscow successfully sues for its money.

The Kremlin's Shadow Campaign

According to European security officials, Russia's GRU military intelligence is responsible for a campaign of intimidation aimed at key Belgian decision-makers. The targets allegedly include senior executives at Euroclear, such as CEO Valérie Urbain, as well as high-ranking politicians. One European official confirmed that Russian operatives "have been engaged in the tactics of intimidation for sure."

Russia has publicly warned that using its assets would amount to theft and has already launched legal action. The Russian central bank is seeking damages equivalent to $230 billion (approx. KES 29.9 trillion) from Euroclear in a case filed in Moscow's courts. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever noted that Moscow has warned that if the assets are touched, Belgium would "feel the consequences until eternity."

• Total Frozen Assets in EU: Approximately €210 billion (approx. KES 29.4 trillion).
• Held in Belgium (Euroclear): €185 billion (approx. KES 25.9 trillion).
• Proposed EU Loan for Ukraine: An initial €90 billion (approx. KES 12.6 trillion).
• Russian Lawsuit vs. Euroclear: Seeking damages of around $230 billion (approx. KES 29.9 trillion).

As EU leaders meet to make a final decision, the outcome will not only shape the future of Ukraine's resistance but also test Europe's resolve against what intelligence agencies describe as a direct Russian campaign of coercion and threats.