A landmark European deal to build a next-generation fighter jet is on the brink of collapse, bogged down by a bitter power struggle between its principal French and German aerospace giants.

For Kenya, the fallout from this European aerospace battle is not a distant headline. It signals a potential shift in global military alliances and could influence the future cost and availability of advanced defence technology for nations navigating complex regional security threats, even as Nairobi pursues its own ambitious military modernisation.

High Stakes and Strained Alliances

The Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a project valued at over €100 billion (approx. KES 14.2 trillion), has been plagued by disputes over leadership and workshare between France's Dassault Aviation and the German arm of Airbus. Olivier Andriès, chief executive of engine co-manufacturer Safran, recently described relations between the lead partners as "very strained."

The project, which also includes Spain, aims to develop a sixth-generation fighter complete with advanced stealth, weaponry, and the ability to fly alongside unmanned drones. Despite the corporate infighting, there remains "very strong willingness" from French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to salvage the deal, according to Andriès. The political leaders are reportedly pressuring the companies to find a solution by mid-December.

A Crowded Sky for Super-Jets

The turmoil surrounding FCAS unfolds as rival projects accelerate, highlighting a fractured European defence landscape. Analysts have questioned the wisdom of duplicating efforts on such costly ventures. Key competitors include:

• Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP): A joint effort by the UK, Italy, and Japan to develop the Tempest fighter.
• Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD): The United States' secretive program to replace the F-22 Raptor, which recently resulted in a contract for Boeing to develop the F-47 aircraft.

President William Ruto has affirmed his government's commitment to modernising the Kenya Air Force, with recent agreements signed with the U.S. and South Korea to enhance capabilities. The availability and cost of future platforms for nations like Kenya could be significantly shaped by which of these international projects succeed or fail.

Whether intense political will can overcome deep-seated corporate rivalry will not only determine the future of Europe's skies but also send ripples through the global defence and security architecture for decades to come.